Governor Line Update

The Governor Line has been updated. Here's the rundown on the movers (no shakers this week)...

Mark Udall drops slightly because his indecision is weakening his leverage and mystique. The Democratic nomination is probably his if he jumps in, but in another few weeks the field is going to fill without him. Udall also recently received an appointment to the Armed Services Committee, which could play a part in any decision to stay out of the race.

Mike Coffman moves up because he is raising money at a decent pace. We also took into account something that jumped out at us in looking over his resume more closely. Coffman has decided against running for two congressional seats (6 & 7) and didn't put his name in the hat for U.S. Senate last year. He looks like a guy who has planned his career for this race, and somebody who wants the seat as bad as he looks like he does will automatically move up in our book.

Bob Beauprez continues to drop as Mini-Marc Holtzman and Mighty Mike Coffman continue to show more activity. Beauprez would beat both of them, but we don't think he'll run as long as there is a decent GOP ticket without him.

Tom Tancredo drops because it appears as though the 2008 Presidential ticket is his immediate goal, however unlikely that may seem, and he is making serious moves to try to be a player in that race.

Rutt Bridges and Bill Ritter stayed put because they are running in place, but Coffman gets a slight nod over Bridges only because he is definitely in the race and Rutt is not...yet.

Comments? Questions? Concerns? Ridiculous names to float? Say it below...

Comments

[Ed]

One thing you haven't mentioned is Udall's appointment to the Armed Services committee, which he has lobbied for for years and has finally gotton it. In the same school of thought that Beauprez will not for b/c of his appointment to Ways and Means, I believe this could decrease Udall's chances. What do you think?

[Alva Adams]

We did forget to mention that here, though we had posted it in the last Udall Non-Decision 2006 that we did. Armed Services Committee doesn't carry the same power that Ways & Means does, but you're right - it may play a part in his decision.

In general, the longer Udall waits to decide, the less likely he probably is to run. He's waffling for reasons unrelated to whether or not he'd get the Democratic nomination, something we'll explore later next week.

[Manny]

What about Sen. Mitchell? he just won an open senate race by 17 points, and is considered a rising star in the Republican party. He is also very bright and articulate.

[Alva Adams]

The only reason that Shawn Mitchell is still a state legislator is because he wisely chose to start his political career in an area that is heavily Republican; as a result, he has had little organized Democratic opposition. His opponent for that Senate seat was a joke. Had the Broomfield Mayor jumped in that race - she was heavily recruited by the Democrats but chose not to run to finish her term as mayor - she would have received heavy Democratic support and likely would have beaten Mitchell.

Mitchell wanted to be Attorney General, but that dream is over for eight years unless a Democrat unseats the new AG in 2006. He is far too right-wing to run statewide and does not have the personal money or political clout to run for Governor (and he's made more than his share of enemies in the last six years). He wouldn't even make it out of a primary. In fact, he might not even make it out of the assembly and onto the ballot if he tried.

[Manny]

Couple quick points to correct. 1)If the area is so heavily republican, how would it have helped if the mayor "have received heavy Democratic support"? If the area is heavily republican, the only thing that might have changed with the Mayor as his opponent would of been his victory margin. 2)The AG term for Suthers could either be 6 or 10 years (including relection) depending on the date of his official swearing in. Being that Suthers was approved by the judiciary comm today it will most likely be 6. 3)His being "too right-wing" would likely help in him in a primary, and even more likely make him a favorite at the assembly, since the assemblies traditionally make up the more extreme ends of the parties.

[Alva Adams]

Broomfield Mayor Karen Stuart has won twice in a Republican area, her last victory a landslide against the Republican head of the city council. The Democrats would have spent big money on her race, but didn't do anything for the guy who ended up opposing Mitchell because he had no chance to win that seat - against anybody. Stuart would have carried Broomfield easily, and Democratic money would have allowed her to at least split the rest of the district. Mitchell would have almost certainly lost. His district is dominated by Republican voter registration, but they are fence-sitting Republicans - not like in Colorado Springs, for example.

Statewide, the police and sheriff groups would go all out to defeat Mitchell because of his search and seizure bill a few years back, and the gay rights lobby would spend millions if Mitchell were gaining any ground because of his strident anti-gay legislation. This is just the start of the list, but Mitchell has too many enemies who would fight tooth and nail to beat him. He doesn't have the same support to overcome that, and he doesn't have the money, either.

If being too right-wing were helpful in a primary, then Bob Shaffer would have been the GOP Senate nominee last year (or for that manner, on the flip side, so would have Mike Miles). But Republicans and Democrats alike are smart enough to know that an extremist on either side can't win statewide, so they won't let such a candidate get through a primary. He might be able to rally enough support at an assembly for another race, but certainly not for governor. Against Coffman and Holtzman he comes in a very distant third and doesn't make the ballot.

Mitchell's dream scenario, which he had mapped out, had Ken Salazar running for Governor in 2006, and then he would try for the open AG seat that Salazar vacated. It should tell you something that Mitchell didn't get the AG nomination and wasn't seriously considered. He pissed off a lot of Republicans in the redistricting battle by trying to keep the lines favorable for him.

Mitchell's best hope is that Udall runs for Governor or Senate, and then he can try to run for that open seat. He could also try Treasurer. But he cannot be governor - there's no scenario where that can happen, which is why we don't even list him. It's no secret that Mitchell is where he is because of favorable circumstances, not political genius. If the latter were true, he'd be AG right now.