Independence Institute: TABOR Support Strong

The Independence Institute, a conservative think-tank, announced results from a survey that it says shows support for changing TABOR among Colorado voters is relatively low. We aren't inclined to take those numbers at face value, because any survey commissioned by a group that is not non-partisan and unbiased should be taken with a grain of salt (this is the same reason you don't automatically believe drug companies who say that "our studies show this drug to be safe"). If TABOR wasn't a problem, then legislators on both sides of the aisle wouldn't be working to fix it; politicians don't try to repeal tax breaks unless they absolutely must, because the political cost of trying to do it is too steep.

However, what the survey does show is that Colorado's elected officials aren't doing a very good job at getting across the problems that TABOR has created. While we certainly understand that this is no easy task - heck, TABOR is more complicated than the dewey decimal system - legislators clearly need to work harder to make the problems clear.

We are somewhat familiar with polling data and how to use it, and those low number for TABOR changes reflect as much a misunderstanding of TABOR as it does a dislike of changing it. If the questions were worded in such a way that they presented the tax break as the primary benefit (for example: "Would you like to see tax breaks repealed in Colorado?) then obviously the answer is going to be NO. But if the question was, "Would you like to see TABOR changed?" then most people wouldn't be able to fairly answer the question.

We once heard a good analogy of TABOR that compared it to low lake levels; there's a version of that comparison available here from Senator Sue Windels.

Comments

[ubikkibu]

Can I offer some constructive criticism for this blog? Drop the royal "we."

While it can give your opinions more punch to use a pronoun that implies they are shared by a group, it is more trustworthy to give specific attribution to the writer. Blogging is journalism's Wild West. So knowing who actually wrote something allows the informed reader to bring the appropriate skepticism or trust to her reading.

If TypePad doesn't allow for this, you could sign each article in the body.

Just an idea. Keep up the good work!

[Alva Adams]

We appreciate the advice. We will consider it.

:)

[James C. Hess]

Quid pro quo: If you expect the Independent Institute to be non-partisan the same should be required of you.

[peterco]

What I expect from a poll at a minimum:

How it was done - check
Questions asked - nope
Demographics - nope

And the best part about the pollers is that they are blatantly pro-Republican on their website. They main selling point is that they "helped" Republicans win in certain districts - which I don't understand since they were saying as if the final poll results influenced the actual election.

What they are trying to say is they don't believe the Independence Institute because they are a conversative group trying to push a certain agenda. If you come to the conclusion that Colorado Pols is trying to push an agenda, you can declare their comments suspect also.

[blogicus maximus]

Why no discussion of amendment 23? TABOR isn't the only bad apple in this batch. Anyway, repealing TABOR is going to be DOA per this poll by the AARP. If 70% of the voters would approve a slight modification this far out then it might just pass, but off year elecions are historically pretty bad for progressive ideas.

By the way, as one who actually worked at the independence institute back in the 90s, they aren't a bastion of GOP supporters. They are more of a motley crew of libertarians who are a pain in the side of the GOP.

Also, thanks for the link to Sue Windels piece. While I personally dislike her, she does admit that 23 is part of the problem, now if the teacher's union who got her elected will just let her change 23 also...

[peterco]

Maybe we should start a movement to just write a new constitution - a gigantic do-over!

I wasn't here when TABOR passed - did anyone even discuss the ramifications of a recession with respect to TABOR or Amend. 23?

BTW, it wasn't AARP. The polling firm site is www.telopinion.com and draw your conclusion from their appeared bias.

[Ben]

You might want to check my latest post. This is an interesting dialogue. I will have more later. As you see, I have the questions asked. No demographics, though.

Blogicus' description of the Institute is fairly accurate ... they are non-partisan and often a thorn in the GOP's side (Gov. Owens has latched onto the proposal in question). They support ideas, not parties, because they believe in them. If you think that's suspect, fine. Their motives for conducting such a poll are transparent, but you should judge the poll by the questions asked.

[JB]

I'd like to see any other poll that disputes their findings. I challenge any other group in Colorado to do a legimate poll that conflicts with Independence's findings. This poll is legitimate!