Enter Morgan Carroll?

With Jim Polsfut and Joanna Conti taking a pass on the 7th CD, is there renewed incentive for freshman State Representative Morgan Carroll (D-Aurora) to jump in? Seeing how it is only May of 2005, there is plenty of time for her to make that assessment.

It's no secret Rep. Carroll was thinking of joining the fray earlier this year, frustrated that her pet legislative projects were being sacrificed on the altar of House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's single-minded agenda (that's life in the shadow of the master strategist). With four Democrats in the race, however, it didn't make sense for Carroll to join an already crowded field.

Both Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm carry with them significant baggage; votes, positions and professional work that will make party activists wince. As long as the race remains between Lamm and Perlmutter, their respective baggage is likely to cancel the other's out, for the most part. This could signal a potentially negative and bruising primary as Lamm and Perlmutter compete for the hearts and minds of the party's faithful by defining their opponent as politically suspect. Could Morgan Carroll exploit this opportunity by sneaking up the middle while Lamm and Perlmutter mud-wrestle?

Well, the keys to viability in any primary are Message, Machine and Money (not necessarily in that order). Let's see how Carroll measures up.

Message: Anyone who has ever seen Morgan Carroll speak knows she can bring Democrats to their feet while framing issues as well or better than any Democrat in the state. This could be a significant advantage for Carroll when you contrast her with Lamm and Perlmutter (let's just say Dave Thomas could hold his own sharing a stage with those two). Carroll's message appeals to the Democratic base, whereas Lamm is positioning herself as a "centrist" and Perlmutter has a fairly moderate voting record. In case you haven't noticed, the base of the Democratic party is engaged in a full-scale revolt against the centrist / moderate wing of the party, whom they see - rightly or wrongly - as repeatedly betraying the party's core values.

Machine: If Morgan Carroll chose to enter the fray, you can bet the entire Mike Miles operation, now known as "Be The Change," would drop everything to help Carroll win. Although you might disagree with the voracity of this crowd, they are astute organizers who upset Ken Salazar at the state convention last year and engineered Pat Waak's surprise victory over party chair Chris Gates this year. The nerve-center of "Be The Change" is located in north Jefferson County (Perlmutter's backyard) in the western part of the district and Carroll's house district and political base are in the east (Aurora). Lamm has to invent a political base virtually from scratch and Perlmutter's is limited to Jefferson County, where both Mike Feeley and Dave Thomas launched their unsuccessful 7th CD bids.

Money: This is an area where Morgan Carroll is weak in comparison to Lamm and Perlmutter. However, it is rumored that EMILY'S List approached Carroll some months ago about running in the 7th. If this is true and the offer still stands, The List could bundle significant dollars for a Carroll candidacy and potentially level the playing field enough to make her competitive with Lamm and Perlmutter. However, if Carroll is unable to raise enough money to be viable, the best she could hope for is top-line at the state convention, only to be buried on TV in the primary. If either Lamm or Perlmutter become damaged goods in the course of the race, key Democratic funding sources could intervene to persuade Carroll to fill the void.

The bottom line here is that the race for the 7th has started so early that new dynamics and candidates have plenty of time to emerge (especially with Conti and Polsfut dropping out). Morgan Carroll, or anyone else for that matter, has more than enough time to hide in the bushes and wait for an opportunity to pounce. If I were Lamm or Perlmutter, I'd be less worried about my announced opposition and more nervous about those who have yet to declare.

Comments

[bob]

Remember that Carroll is loved by the CTLA; when she announced for the State House, she raised money with ease. Trial lawyers would open up their pocketbooks quickly for Carroll in a CD race. Money is not her achilles heel; she certainly has a leg up on the other two in natural ability to fundraise.

[JeffcoDem]

I am very pleased Rep. Carrol is looking at the race I would love to have a choice between two accomplished females. I find it very hard to get excited about Perlsputter. I am a die hard Miles believer and our cause is the cause of the real Democrat Party and we need standard bearers not more out of touch wealthy 17th street lawyers.

[learnedhand]

what is with this site's infatuation with a freshman legilsator who has never even so much as passed a bill?

M-Carroll may well have a future in politics but she needs a lot more experience. I think anyone that has watched her closely on the House Floor, dealing with other Legislators, and even dealing with the Lobby would recognize this.

[learnedhand]

I will commend Morgan for her comments during the floor debate to override the Gov's veto. She was very impressive...

[Strider]

I am a big fan of Carrolls but it is two early for her to do this. Give her a few years and she will be a heavy hitter.

[delphic]

Morgan Carroll has a future in politics but she is probably too liberal for this district in the long run. The best she could do is upset Perlmutter and blow the Democratic Party's chances for pickling up a congressional seat. If she comes off as an overly-ambitious spoiler, and blows the race, her career in Democratic politics will be over. She is better off helping Perlmutter and creating a base beyond liberal lawyers.

[sharktacos]

If Morgan enters the race, she'll win. Lots of people run for Congress who haven't held previous office and they do just fine. In fact, you could argue that they often do better than the so-called "seasoned pros."

Morgan is the most exciting Democrat being talked about for this race so far. Plus, She's no "latte-sipping elitist liberal." Her agenda is mainly bread-and-butter blue collar issues, which would play well in the 7th CD.

The thing I like best about her is that she doesn't jump when a lobbyist talks. Plays well with the voters too.

[pleasepleaseplease]

As a republican in the 7th I can only hope and pray that the Ds are crazy enough to nominate Carroll. I don't know about her choice of beverages, but bring on the "elitist trial lawyer!" If being anti-gun, pro union, pro abortion, pro government regulation of just about everything and pro higher taxes is blue collar then she is perfect for the district.