More Money for Holtzman and the Domino Effect

It's been a Marc Holtzman Monday, but you know what they say: when it rains...

Holtzman is having a fundraiser in New York on Thursday that he says will be attended by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, but the biggest name is on the invitation (Download Holtzman_Fundraiser.pdf): media tycoon and all-around really rich guy Rupert Murdoch is listed as one of the hosts.

It's no wonder why some big Colorado Republicans (and supporters of Congressman Bob Beauprez) were hoping to entice Holtzman into taking the vacant state treasurer job. Holtzman doesn't look to be slowing down much after raising $500k in the first quarter of this year, and if he has more fundraisers of this size, he may very well have $1 million in the bank by July. Holtzman may not have the name ID and the political cache that Beauprez has, but money can hide a lot of flaws -- and he may have a lot of it come August 2006.

And here's where it gets really interesting, because it may force Beauprez, the Republican favorite for now until Holtzman rounds out more as a candidate, into a tough spot. Right now there is no big-name Democratic candidate running for governor (sorry, Bill Ritter; you're not there yet), but if someone like Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper decides to get in the race, then in order to win the governor's seat Beauprez would have to beat a very tough opponent in Holtzman, with his prize being an even tougher opponent in Hickenlooper. Those are bad odds...

So what? Here's what: Beauprez is thought to have his eyes on even bigger shoes, with the thought being that winning a governor's race could put him on the Presidential short list in 6-8 years.

Now, if that really is Beauprez's goal, Holtzman's growing strength, plus a tough Democrat like Hickenlooper, changes the equation. If Beauprez loses an election for governor, while giving up a congressional seat that by most accounts Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are not happy to see him leave, he goes straight to the back of the line politically. What does he do next? The earliest option, in 2008, would be if Wayne Allard retires and opens his senate seat. But no serious Republican is going to back down for Beauprez at that point. And if Allard doesn't retire? There's nothing to do other than try to run for his congressional seat again, and that's assuming that a Democrat wins the seat in 2006. If a Republican wins CD-7, and Allard doesn't retire...well, he can always go back to banking.

Beauprez is still the favorite on the Republican side, but if Holtzman continues to raise big money, then even if Beauprez wins the primary he'll be severely bloodied and with little cash left over. Hickenlooper as an opponent would likely have no primary opposition, and he'd be waiting there with his entire war chest and a rested staff. Of course, Beauprez could still win the general election and become governor, but it's a LOT tougher if you have to go through two tough opponents to get there. No matter who you are, those aren't good odds.   

In that scenario, Beauprez has a much better chance winning re-election to his congressional seat then he does in winning the governor's race, and he has an easy way out by just saying he's doing it in the best interests of the Republican Party. He could then stay on the Ways and Means Committee and still be in position to run for Senate in 2008 or 2010, keeping alive the possibility to run for the biggest prize of all somewhere down the line. Staying in congress may not be the same prize as being governor, but it's better than holding no seat at all.   

Would Beauprez make that decision and pull out of the race? Maybe, maybe not. But if you were advising him in that scenario, and you knew that he had bigger political goals in the future, what would you tell him to do?

Of course, if Beauprez doesn't really have higher ambitions, and if the Democrats don't put forth a tough candidate, then none of this matters. But it's an interesting scenario worth keeping an eye on. We're not saying Beauprez will drop out of the race, but if Holtzman keeps getting stronger, and Hickenlooper jumps in within the next few months, he'd at least have to consider it.

Holtzman as a candidate is steaming ahead, but even if he doesn't end up as governor, he could very well change the outcome anyway.

Comments

[Iknow]

The Mayor is NOT running. He has said it very clearly 10 times. Alva you are doing a real diservice to our Party by pushing his name at the expense of our possible candidates who will run. Please pick up the phone like you did with Marc Holtzman and call the Mayor's Office maybe then you will end the spin.

[poli.hack]

i hear that mayor hickenlooper will be on the mike rosen show (850 koa) on thursday (9am-11:45am). maybe he finally has an "official" announcement to make?

[Keith]

Hickenlooper. 2-1.

[Alva Adams]

We appreciate your concern, but Hickenlooper has never said unequivocally that he will not run for governor in 2006 -- never. Since the jail vote, in fact, he has privately talked more positively about the race. We're not saying he's going to run, but until he says "I will not run for governor in 2006," he is still in the mix. That's just reality.

[jake]

There must be something in the water these days. Sadly (or not) money alone does not win races. How many races do I need to point to where the monied candidate dumped tons of money only to lose (let's start with the D primary in IL for the senate, 20 mill to lose to Obama).

Finally we can look at all the rich guys that have run in CO only yo lose, it goes back at least 20 years.

[jon]

All the money in the world won't make Holtzman any taller.

[mike]

jon, at least attack the guy on his merits. holtzman actually has a couple inches on coffman, believe it or not.

[Ralph]

Running DU is a better gig than State Treasurer.

[Alva Adams]

Money isn't the end-all, be-all, and the reason Holtzman isn't higher on our line is because he still needs to round out as a candidate. But what is impressive about his fundraising at this point is that he has done it with $500 contribution limits (which, in fairness, still allows for $2,000 checks from a joint account). The amount of money he is raising is unusual for a candidate this far out from the election.

Our main point was that even if Holtzman doesn't win, he'll have raised enough money to seriously damage Beauprez in the primary; he's now a major player in the race whether he wins or not. If Beauprez has to spend more money to hold him off, that significantly weakens him for the general.

What if Beauprez comes out of August with a virtually empty coffer against a good Democratic opponent who didn't have a primary and has a full war chest? That would be trouble.

[Joey]

Keep on rubbing your hands and coming up with ways that Bobby B will lose. Dream on!

[pacified]

I'm sure everyone saw this:

DENVER (AP) With no heir apparent to a lame-duck GOP governor, Republicans are trying to decide if it's worth the risk of losing a seat in Congress by nominating Rep. Bob Beauprez to seek the governor's mansion next year.

They also worry about a doomsday scenario that would allow U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, the only Democrat to win a statewide race in years, to run for governor. If Salazar wins, he could appoint his successor, and Democrats could take another political plum away from the Republicans.

[irishstout]

Hick has a NEW problem which will not allow him to run even if he wanted to. Its called immigration and the murder of a Denver Cop by an illegal who worked at Hick's restaurant.

[poog]

It's nice to see the Governor's got his spin machine working the Colorado Pols blog comments. Of course Holtzman was offered the spot and of course he turned it down. Could their be anything more logical from both sides. Why wouldn't the Governor make the offer might as well try and clear the way for BB.