More Reason To Be Concerned With CD-7

The Rocky has a story today about the elder brother John Salazar and his ability to cross party lines when representing his District, CD-3.

The 3rd Congressional District Democrat - a potato farmer turned politician - said he thinks so much about matching his constituents' wishes that he sometimes doesn't decide how to vote until the short walk from his office to the House of Representatives floor. Nearly a third of his votes have sided with Republicans, which is even more often than his independent-minded younger brother, U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar.

Every single vote I cast, I have to (consider) what my beliefs are and what my district's beliefs are," John Salazar said. He said he tries to "defend my district, defend rural values" and ignore the party line.

Great for Democrats – Bad for Republicans.

Because if John continues to actually represent his District, the seat will likely remain in the Blue column.  In a District that is progressively more independent minded with Republicans who are known to vote D whenever “water-grab” is mentioned, Salazar is becoming increasingly popular while making a concerted effort at Constituent Relations.

That open-door policy, together with his down-home rhetoric, almost guarantees another term of service for John. After all – even his declared opposition has nice things to say:

Cortez businessman Scott Tipton already has been quoted in the Cortez Journal calling Salazar a "pleasant fellow" who "would always vote correctly on issues such as water, agriculture and multiple use."

Which means Republicans will focus more and more on CD-7.

With John Salazar supporting the President on issues like guest worker programs and parental notification, the Farmer-turned-Congressman will seem less vulnerable then, say, Peggy Lamm or Ed Perlmutter.

But more importantly, with the balance of Colorado’s Congressional Delegation hinging on CD-7, R’s will undoubtedly mobilize to jump in and help the eventual nominee (most likely Rick O’Donnell), both with money and bodies.

So barring any surprises in CD-4, (and after a primary in CD-5) the Battleground in ’06 will be in 7.

Comments

[Phoenix Rising]

Good analysis. Say what you will about the Salazars, they both seem to be their own men. It is often said of compromise that if neither side is completely happy, you've probably struck a good balance; both Salazars seem to be doing a pretty good job by that standard. CD-3 looks more and more like a John Salazar retention.

I think CD-4 is still quite targetable for Dems, though - I don't see CD-7 as the sole battleground, but rather one of two.

[RedHawk]

I will never count out Guy Short and the ability of the Musgrave Campaign to fundraise. Both machines are in overdrive right now – and the ’04 count was a huge eye-opener for everyone – so I’m confident the 4th will remain in Red control.

[ohwilleke]

Notably, John Salazar can afford to be more independent that Ken Salazar, because, as a member of the minority in a chamber where Republicans win every issue all the time (except stem cells, and they win this one eventually as well with a veto), his votes don't cripple his party's agenda when he deviates.

Likewise, should Democrats secure a majority in the House, the vote to organize the chamber with a Democratic party leadership matters more than anything else.

[You Got It Backwards]

What this seems to mean is that the DCCC (the group with far less money) will be able to focus their limited resources on only one race instead of two - this is GREAT for the Ds. Rs always have enough money to play in all races, but the Ds always have to choose. If CD3 isn't anything to worry about, then the Ds won't waste their resources there and will more effectively answer and attack the R in CD07.

[spudman]

Wow! Looks like being a Congressman that actually represents the district might pay off. Colorado politicians, new and old, should take a page out of the potato farmers guide to representative government.

[Jake]

RedHawk - Well, the day has finally come, I agree with you on your posting!!! From what I hear, the Rs are not only focused on keeping the 7th, but they have already secured some of the best talent in the nation to do it.

Rs will certainly play in the 3rd and make sure MM is reelected in the 4th, but the 7th is going to be where the heavy action is this cycle!

[Phoenix Rising]

I don't think there's any doubt that CO-7 is the hottest open seat ticket in the country; with Beauprez's 121-vote initial victory, it has proven to be a truly balanced district.

CO-3 is pulling away from Republicans; they'll make a play, but I think Walcher was their ace card, and it didn't beat out Salazar in '04. I'm not impressed with GOP efforts out there so far for '06.

Musgrave always seems to pull out wins, but she usually makes a race of it, just to prove she isn't that popular - or so it seems. Matsunaka hasn't been able to pull ahead of MM in multiple tries now; some fresh blood (Angie, Wes?) may do the trick for the Dems. Fortunately for Musgrave, she is good at raising (and spending) cash.

[tommix]

Unfortunately for MM she doesn't seem to be so good of late in keeping her mouth shut. Her defense of Tom could Delay her return to the House in '06...no one knows what lurks in the minds of men (and women in the 4th).

[billyscaredofmichael]

Tipton has the connections and money raising ability to make a solid run in the 3 CD. it will be hot there next summer

[dan]

Tipton is a weenie. If he really is our candidate, John-John shouldn't have to spend much time in the 3rd next year.