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Phoenix Rising

Good analysis. Say what you will about the Salazars, they both seem to be their own men. It is often said of compromise that if neither side is completely happy, you've probably struck a good balance; both Salazars seem to be doing a pretty good job by that standard. CD-3 looks more and more like a John Salazar retention.

I think CD-4 is still quite targetable for Dems, though - I don't see CD-7 as the sole battleground, but rather one of two.

RedHawk

I will never count out Guy Short and the ability of the Musgrave Campaign to fundraise. Both machines are in overdrive right now – and the ’04 count was a huge eye-opener for everyone – so I’m confident the 4th will remain in Red control.

ohwilleke

Notably, John Salazar can afford to be more independent that Ken Salazar, because, as a member of the minority in a chamber where Republicans win every issue all the time (except stem cells, and they win this one eventually as well with a veto), his votes don't cripple his party's agenda when he deviates.

Likewise, should Democrats secure a majority in the House, the vote to organize the chamber with a Democratic party leadership matters more than anything else.

You Got It Backwards

What this seems to mean is that the DCCC (the group with far less money) will be able to focus their limited resources on only one race instead of two - this is GREAT for the Ds. Rs always have enough money to play in all races, but the Ds always have to choose. If CD3 isn't anything to worry about, then the Ds won't waste their resources there and will more effectively answer and attack the R in CD07.

spudman

Wow! Looks like being a Congressman that actually represents the district might pay off. Colorado politicians, new and old, should take a page out of the potato farmers guide to representative government.

Jake

RedHawk - Well, the day has finally come, I agree with you on your posting!!! From what I hear, the Rs are not only focused on keeping the 7th, but they have already secured some of the best talent in the nation to do it.

Rs will certainly play in the 3rd and make sure MM is reelected in the 4th, but the 7th is going to be where the heavy action is this cycle!

Phoenix Rising

I don't think there's any doubt that CO-7 is the hottest open seat ticket in the country; with Beauprez's 121-vote initial victory, it has proven to be a truly balanced district.

CO-3 is pulling away from Republicans; they'll make a play, but I think Walcher was their ace card, and it didn't beat out Salazar in '04. I'm not impressed with GOP efforts out there so far for '06.

Musgrave always seems to pull out wins, but she usually makes a race of it, just to prove she isn't that popular - or so it seems. Matsunaka hasn't been able to pull ahead of MM in multiple tries now; some fresh blood (Angie, Wes?) may do the trick for the Dems. Fortunately for Musgrave, she is good at raising (and spending) cash.

tommix

Unfortunately for MM she doesn't seem to be so good of late in keeping her mouth shut. Her defense of Tom could Delay her return to the House in '06...no one knows what lurks in the minds of men (and women in the 4th).

billyscaredofmichael

Tipton has the connections and money raising ability to make a solid run in the 3 CD. it will be hot there next summer

dan

Tipton is a weenie. If he really is our candidate, John-John shouldn't have to spend much time in the 3rd next year.

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