Significant Line Changes

We've updated the Governor and CD-7 Lines, and here's how it looks...

DU President Marc Holtzman is now the Republican favorite. We bumped Holtzman above Congressman Bob Beauprez because while Beauprez gets beat up over his connections with House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Holtzman just keeps raising money and cruising along around the state. It's still early, and Holtzman and Beauprez will likely flip-flop for the next 14 months, but right now Holtzman has just had a better couple of months than Beauprez -- and nobody is attacking him.

Of course, the big news in the governor's race this week was Democrat Rutt Bridges' "announcement" that he was officially in the race. Bridges' campaign foibles associated with his announcement were a big topic among Democrats on Thursday and Friday, and whether or not you agree that his announcement was a major gaffe, there's no denying that it prevented Bridges from enjoying the positive momentum a candidate should get with an announcement. This should have been his couple of days to stand up and beat his chest as a candidate, and it just didn't work out that way.

Nevertheless, Bridges is the top Democrat by a hair (excluding Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper) but may be in for a fight to hold off Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald from taking that title. Momentum for Fitz-Gerald is growing and may have only increased with Bridges' announcement. There are those, including Party Chair Pat Waak, who are quietly pushing her towards running. Given how well Fitz-Gerald performed in the 2005 legislative session, she's clearly a threat for the nomination without Hickenlooper.

The Denver Mayor, for his part, has apparently decided to watch from the sidelines for awhile to see how the Democratic field performs, but he has not ruled out getting in the race should it appear as though the current field of Democratic candidates aren't looking good. We're not backing off from what we've said from the beginning on Hick; until he says he is definitely not running, he's still the top candidate in either party. And from what we hear, the calls for him to run have been growing in the last week.

As for former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, Bridges' entry into the race, coupled with Fitz-Gerald's momentum, doesn't bode well. Ritter has fallen enough to be called a distant third among Democrats at this point, and if he doesn't show a great deal of support when his first fundraising report comes out, Ritter's going to be in deep trouble.

Former Congressman Scott McInnis continues to show that he really isn't all that serious about running for governor after last week's strange what do you think I should do letter to Republicans. Unless something significant happens to both Holtzman and Beauprez on the Republican side, we'd be shocked to see McInnis running for governor this time next year.

The rest of the line is beginning to clear up after Ritter. If Fitz-Gerald gets in the race, then that should be it for the Democratic field unless Hickenlooper makes an entry.

Moving on to the CD-7 Line, the positions are holding steady. Former State Senator Ed Perlmutter and former candidate Rick O'Donnell are the clear favorites for the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively. We've heard varying reports on Perlmutter's fundraising thus far, but his initial report is expected to be strong. The same is rumored of O'Donnell where fundraising is concerned.

Democrat Peggy Lamm is in a hole after last month's serious of troubles, and she now needs the support of EMILYs List to be a serious player in this race. If she gets on the list, she'll move up the line significantly; if she doesn't, she may fall too far behind to catch up. We still don't have any idea who the hell Herb Rubenstein is or why he is running, but he is expected to announce his candidacy on June 15. We don't expect him to make much difference in this race, but perhaps we'll be surprised.

And finally, Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall is still thought to be an eventual candidate on the Republican side, and while we continue to doubt his chances in a general election, there is a real chance he could cause serious trouble for Rick O'Donnell in a primary and even make it out as the nominee (Paschall will join Colorado Pols for a Q&A on June 14).

Comments

[charlie]

It is clear you are shilling for Marc, hoping he is the Republican nominee because he would be the weakest in a gerneral election. Marc would be toast against any Dem opponent--great strategy for a Dem blog.

[Wilkes]

I knew Marc when he was but a gleam in his father’s eye. Whoa to those who underestimate the determination and intelligence of a Holtzman.

[zygote]

Wilkes, are you really saying that you new Marc Holtzman when before he was even an embryo in his mother's womb? If so, you may be a good argument for a New England Journal of Medicine article --and you better let Diana DeGette know she is wrong about intelligent life in stem cells...

[GoBobGo]

Have no fear. Let this blog underestimate Beauprez. I have it on pretty good authority that Bob is going to put up some HUGE numbers at the end of this filing period. Benson has cut back on his fundraising for Ref C to focus on Bobby B's race. Word on the street is he will easily exceed $600K and could be closer to $650K. That will be tough for Holtzman to compete with. Go Bob Go!

[Momentum]

Momentum will carry the day. Holtzman will fizzle and Bob B. will buildbuild and continuetobuild momentum, excitement and support.

I heard him yesterday; HE WAS ON and in fighting shape. Holtzman has no idea what he's in for.

[Cod]

I am not sure why everyone is being so hard on Bridges -- in fact, I don't remember the last time an announcement garnered so much criticism. Looking at it from an objective point of view, one may think that Bridges may just be too threatening to the GOP and other Dem's with their eye on the Gov's race. Beware of those who disect and analyze every thread of a candidate's decisions... after all, the only thing worse than being talked about it NOT being talked about.

[Collin]

Here, here Cod. I don't know much about Bridges but he seems like a more salt-of-the-earth John Hickenlooper to me -- his business experience and Horatio Alger story should go over well in Colorado, even the rural areas.
A Beauprez/Bridges battle would be interesting: two self-made businessmen with rural roots. But what Bridges has going for him over Beauprez is his thoughtful approach to public policy and ability to not strictly walk the party line. Beauprez's ultra-conservative, cowtowing past will probably catch up with him in a statewide race -- skeletons will emerge that were easier to hide in a congressional run.

[inlikealamm]

Peggy Lamm will get on Emily's List faster than a Perlmutter can lose interest.

[Cod]

I agree, I think that EL would be silly not to back Lamm. She typifies everything that the 7th CD needs and wants. Perlmutter is too institutionalized and, besides, he'll lose interest anyway. Actually, I'm pretty amazed he has stuck it out this long -- maybe they increased his dosage of Ritalin?

[Hugo O'conor]

And BB picked up Coffman's endorsment too. That will carry a lot of weight.

[whatever]

Ha - I'll be interested to see what the numbers come out to, gogbobgo... The momentum is CLEARLY with Holtzman right now. Bob has an uphill battle ahead.

[Bobleads]

I think this race is Beauprez's to lose. Bob has the GOP base locked up through the convention. Holtzman will likely petition but has the resources to make it through the primary. Bob will win and be better for it. Much like Owens defeating Tom Norton in 1998.
I am surprised at the weakness of the Democrat field, Rutt is not charismatic and his story is good but not great. Bill Ritter has faded away and now with the cop shooting capture Morrissey will be the name everyone knows as Denver DA.
Don't agree with the current line changes but I do agree we will see movement back and forth but I put my money on Beauprez.

[Ed]

You folks need to realize that this website does not determine "momentum".

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

This line change should help MH raise money and make it a tad more difficult for BB, unless it stimulates his backers to show their support. Both sides should be energized by this line change, regardless of the validity, which I question a bit.

It appears both sides will have money and the outcome will depend on the candidates' effectiveness with activists and voters. So money isn't really an issue at this point, because both sides are raising big bucks.

[Alva Adams]

The line is likely going to change a great deal in the next 12 months, but if you're following it on a week to week basis as we do, this is how we think it looks.

For example, Holtzman has just had a better couple of months than Beauprez that has culminated with the MoveOn attacks against Beauprez. Does that mean that Holtzman will beat Beauprez in the primary? Of course not. But if you were going to ask who is in best position today, we would say it's Holtzman. He's raising a lot of money and nobody is attacking him. That could all change next week, however. We're trying to track the pulse of who is moving up and down in the meantime.

[Ed]

sexual harrassment?!?

Please document that before throwing something that serious out on the table.

[RightOn]

Do your own darn homework.

[Cod]

I have never heard any of the charges against anyone - it's much too early to slime this race before it's even begun.

[Liar Liar]

Smut. This blog is pure smut. Alva- you take down things you don't like about the Mayor, but someone makes an unsubstantied claim about Bridges and it's all about freedom of speech. What a fraud.

[Alva Adams]

You're right about the Bridges comment. We missed that comment, but that comment and subsequent comments have been removed. We don't monitor comments as they come in, so we can't always catch unfair ones immediately. But when we see them, we do take them off.

Remember, this isn't a place to float unsubstantiated and possibly damaging rumors about anyone. Back it up or leave it out.

[Team Marc]

Thank you that was a low blow on Marc.

[wexford98]

Marc Holtzman is the man to beat. Beauprez is establishment and for too long we have seen propped up puppets of Owens and Bush screw the GOP activists. Beauprez has refused to listen to his district and Rep. Tancredo regarding illegal immigration which is a major Colorado issue that is even more underestimated than Beauprez (according to his supporters). Bush and Owens have lost their political capital and Beauprez is following their lead in that.
Here is a man still screwing his party by not announcing - except through Rick O'Donnell, another establishment guy. This is a state that likes mavericks. Holtzman is just that.

[Jake]

Wexford98 - In regards to O'Donnell as the establishment guy, I don't see how you get there. O'Donnell is a guy that ran against BB, the NRCC and the rest of the establishment 4 years ago.

As far as political capital goes, the last time I check, Owens favorable numbers were in the high 60s.

[jon]

Jake, he also called Holtzman a maverick. I swear I am still laughing and nearly wet my pants over the description of the "little nerd that could" as some sort of a cowboy.

[Jake]

Giddyup little buddy!