The Governor Line has been updated. Before we get to the explanations, a quick reminder: the Governor Line has nothing to do with who Colorado Pols wants to win or likes better. It is based entirely on insider information and our analysis of that information. We're not telling you, for example, that Hickenlooper is scaring people off because we think it sounds good; if he announced tomorrow the entire field would change.
Here's the lowdown on who moved and why:
1. Rutt Bridges
Rutt is making the most noise of any of the candidates lately, and got kudos for matching the amount raised at a Tsunami Relief fundraiser last week. He still suffers from listening to too many advisors telling him too many things that may or may not be in his best interest. As the saying goes, "if you have too many advisors, you have no advisors" (actually, that may not even be a saying. We might have made that up). Nevertheless, he has become a clear third on the list at this point.
2. Marc Holtzman
Holtzman has moved to the top of the list of Republican candidates, both because he is doing the most to move in the direction of Governor and because nobody better is doing anything to stand in his way. As we reported first last week, he is already raising money and has filed paperwork to create an exploratory committee. Still, his comment to the Rocky Mountain News that "There's no front bench for either party" is only half correct, because the three top Democrats would beat him handily if the election were held tomorrow. At this point being the best Republican in the race is sort of like having the best seats for the Colorado Avalanche. If Holtzman is the best the GOP can do in 2006, the seat should be an easy win for the Democrats.
3. Bob Beauprez
As we also reported first weeks ago, last week Bobby B confirmed that he had been appointed to the House Ways & Means Committee, one of the more powerful committees on Capitol Hill. Don't think that he would have gotten that appointment had his Republican colleagues in Congress thought he would be quitting to run for Governor in a year; it's a good bet that Republican leadership got that promise from him beforehand. He is still the best candidate the Republicans have, but the chances of him running are dwindling faster than the Bill Owens fan club.
4. Wayne Allard
Allard falls in the Governor Line for much the same reason that Beauprez does; he received an appointment to the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, which would be hard to snare if he were planning on quitting in a year. More likely this is a sign that Allard will run for re-election to the Senate in 2008.
5. Bill Ritter
Ritter moves up for one reason: he is more likely than any of the candidates behind him on the list to make the plunge and remain in the race. Ritter is seriously exploring a gubernatorial run and is on the 'run' side of the fence.
6. Ben "Nighthorse" Campbell
Nighthorse just landed a "lobbying" job with a Washington D.C. law firm, but supporters are still talking about a gubernatorial run for him.
7. Scott McInnis
We just added Scott McInnis because his name is mentioned by the media, but we immediately gave him a falling red arrow because we think there is no chance he'll try to run. McInnis is making a lot of money in his new law firm job, and he has some pretty scary skeletons in his closet above and beyond the minor scandals that have been reported in the press. We don't think he'll run, which would make it hard for him to win, so we're dropping him already.
Comments? Suggestions? Silly names to float? Comment below...
An explanation with regards to Rutt Bridges, please? How does raising funds for victims of a tsunami make one qualified to be governor of the State of Colorado? Or is this a direct take from the Bill Clinton playbook?
Posted by: James C. Hess | January 08, 2005 at 06:20 PM
Again, we're not debating the merits of who SHOULD be governor or who is better qualified to take the post. The Governor Line is about who has the best chance to win, and as we all know, winning and qualifications do not go hand-in-hand.
Rutt ingratiated himself to a large group of people last week who got together to raise a lot of money (many of whom might feel inclined to write him a check if he runs himself). This is an example of how Rutt is being proactive in raising his positive profile.
Posted by: Alva Adams | January 08, 2005 at 06:43 PM
That does not answer the question posed.
Posted by: James C. Hess | January 09, 2005 at 08:59 AM
I'm not sure what you're looking for in an answer, because nobody on this site has ever said raising money for Tsunami victims is even remotely related to being qualified to be Governor.
Politics and policy are not the same thing. Don't confuse the two.
Posted by: Alva Adams | January 09, 2005 at 12:54 PM