Fremont County Straw Poll Shows Surprises

Dem Notes has an interesting post about a straw poll conducted by Fremont County (Canon City area) Democrats for their unofficial preference for Governor:

Rutt Bridges - 29
Mike Miles - 14
Andrew Romanoff - 12
Mark Udall - 11
Federico Pena - 4
Al Yates - 3
John Hickenlooper - 2
Bill Ritter and Joan Fitz-Gerald were both also on the ballot, but received no votes.

In addition, there were a few write-ins, including two votes for Rep. Buffie McFadyen and a vote each for Roy Romer and Sen. Abel Tapia. A couple of jokers with a demented sense of humor also put my name in there, too.

Here's our analysis of those numbers and what you can take from them:

First of all, Rutt Bridges high vote count jumps out until you consider that he was a speaker at their meeting, so that number really should be cut in half. People in Canon City are just happy to see visitors who aren't celebrating their last 30 minutes of freedom. Still, that's a pretty good indication that Party types are appreciative of his work in 2004 and his name is becoming better known. Rutt should feel good about that.

Throw out the Mike Miles votes - he'd get the same number of votes for President if they polled for that. Miles people are always going to put his name out there for the next 4-6 years.

Andrew Romanoff and Mark Udall are no-brainers. They are the two most visible Democrats in the state aside from Ken Salazar, so those two will automatically get a lot of votes. People who don't follow politics as closely as others will just mark these two.

Frederico Pena and Al Yates are interesting. Those are lesser-known or remembered names, and Pena and John Hickenlooper's names show that the "Denver politicians can't win statewide" bias is a bit of a misnomer. For Pena and Hick to get a few votes means that they aren't automatically written off as Denver guys. Yates is particularly interesting, given that his base is several hundred miles north in Fort Collins yet is name is still recognized down south.

Finally, the big news from that poll: Neither Bill Ritter nor Joan Fitz-Gerald received a single vote - and their names were on the ballot! It doesn't surprise us that Ritter didn't get a vote - nobody knows who he is outside of Denver, even if Ritter thinks they do. If Ritter needed any more of a wake up to get more active in running for governor, this should be it for him.

Fitz-Gerald is a bigger surprise. We don't consider her a serious candidate for governor, but it is striking that not one person cast a vote for the new President of the Senate.

And just a reminder, in case it's still necessary, none of this matters much outside of the Yates, Ritter and Fitz-Gerald votes (and to a lesser extent, the Pena and Hickenlooper votes). Heck, Buffie McFadyen, who nearly lost her bid for re-election, received two write-in votes merely because her district is nearby.

Comments

[Ralph]

I would say that Udall's stock is in a freefall. "This indecision's killin' me." Also, that was a bad loss yesterday in the Colorado House. One Democratic vote could have killed McKinley's bill to require a warning at Rocky Flats and Udall couldn't muster that. That doesn't bode very well.

[roger]

Hickenlooper clearly wants to run for Governor, but is afraid that appearing too ambitious or too preoccupied with it will hurt his jail campaign in the spring.

Look for him to play the reluctant debutante only to have his pal Chris Gates step in and form a Draft John movement. That way, Hick can have his cake and eat it to. He gets the nomination without appearing to seek it.

It is the kind of strategy that both he and Gates are good at. Hick plays the "aw shucks I'm not really a politician" pretty well, but don't let anyone be fooled - this guy is a master politician and a manipulator from way back.

Fitz-Gerald would undoubtedly like to take Mark Udall's Congressional seat if it opens up. However, a lot of folks think she should look at the Secretary of State race. As a former county clerk of Jefferson county she brings the right credentials.

[ohwilleke]

It is worth noting that Miles is the hometown boy in Fremont County.

Also, if Pena is doing better than Hickenlooper in the poll, despite the fact that Pena had a somewhat controversial run as Mayor marked by a DIA debacle (I suspect that many in Fremont conty recall him as Secretary of Transporation rather than as Denver Mayor), while Hickenlooper has done nothing to offend anyone and been incredibly effective, this does show that Hickenlooper is not yet ripe for a statewide run.

Since Romanoff is unlikey to run, Udall belongs at the top of the heap.

[Alva Adams]

The Democratic field depends entirely on Hickenlooper, which we'll outline more in a few days. Things have clarified a little as to what's going on in that regard.