And from the RED Corner...

“As someone I greatly respect, I want you to be among the first to know that I plan to run for Governor of Colorado in 2006.”

That’s how Mark Holtzman opened his first mass mailing to the donor list he’s been hording over for the last two years. The letter is dated March 19, 2005. So this is it: we officially have three contenders for the Governors race in ’06: Beauprez, Coffman and Holtzman. Though insiders are betting on McInnis entering the race in the next week (after this “draft Scott” campaign fizzles), few believe Scott-y boy can (um, how should I say it…) “match up” against Bob B.

Interestingly enough – Holtzman has obviously done his field research; he correctly names the “Big Three” issues of this next campaign season: Education, the Economy and the Environment. The only question is this: is Marc the right Republican to clearly articulate those messages to the voters of Colorado. I gotta say no.

And that gets us back to Beauprez… Alva, James and Jesse are absolutely correct in their rankings of the Republican field for governor. BB is the unquestionable front runner – and not JUST because he’s being backed by the “Powers that Be” on the Republican Side. But before I get into that – let me just say this (you’ll hear it repeated throughout the next 9 months): I like Mike. Mike’s great. He’s a man of the people, knows the activists, counties and issues. I have no problem with Mike… he just no longer fires me – and others like me – up. He’s become old hat, a professional civil servant who has lost touch with (nonpolitical) ma and pop folks.

And for those of you who are saying “Beauprez hasn’t announced yet”, well, ya, you’re right. But come on. He really has. This is a done deal. Within the next few weeks, the campaign manager will be hired and the team built. We’ll have another pretty photo-op on the steps of the capitol (perhaps sans Phaseline this time) with the same heavy hitters and the same media opportunists present that we had when Coors announced his candidacy. But this time, we’ll have a credible businessman who happens to also have a credible legislative record.

         

Bob knows the economy, has voted on the environment and is a huge advocate of education reform. He walks the walk that Holtzman talks (ya gotta love Mike Miles) and has the money behind him, to boot. So, though I appreciate that Mark Holtzman respects me (really??), and give him kudos for finally admitting what we’ve all known for months, his candidacy will end as it began; forced and base-less.

Comments

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

You're hot for BB? What's your assessment of him as a speaker and campaigner?
On a scale of 1-10, with 10 perfect, how would your rate the candidates as candidates, not as money raisers or policy wonks?

How important is stage presence vs. support from the precinct leaders and county officials and leaders? Who has the upper hand there?

What would it take for Mike to re-light your enthusiasm for him?

[Lori]

No one can out work Scott on the campaign trail. If/when he gets in you have to at least admit he's going to be a tough opponent.

[Riggs]

Donald, your tenacious support for Coffman is admirable, but think about this with an open mind. Don't forget that Beauprez was active in Colorado GOP circles for decades before he ever ran for office. He did a tour as state party chairman, and as far as that goes probably has much better ties to local county parties than Coffman. Also, are you trying to say Coffman could be a better campaigner? No offense, but winning and holding the 7th doesn't strike one as a cakewalk. Maybe that's an office Coffman should look at before running for Governor...

[RedHawk]

Don, as the last cycle proved to us - the Party Activists ARE NOT the end-all, be-all of the Republican Party. Take a look at the 'R' Winners in November and you'll see folks who were running WITHOUT the blessings of "Precinct Leaders" or "County Officials" in the Primary.

Any body want to chime in here? I'll start the list...

1. Eva Wilson

[peterco]

Since you are pushing Beauprez, could you tell me what sort of bills he has sponsored and things he has done in Congress? I'm more curious about that - because propaganda about awesome photo shoots don't interest me.

[RedHawk]

peterco: I'd reccomend a simple google search - or better yet, Thomas or Lexus Nexus. This isn't a "policy" web site - simply "politics".

[ron]

Ditch the blue guy. But, this red broad is OK. Instead of a lefty idealist for the blue guy, why don't you get a political insider. That's what makes this site worth reading. Insider gossip, not ideological rants.

[Scott]

Red makes a good point about Eve Wilson's race. Eva seemed to have every Republican party player (and a handful of Democrat converts)in the 18th Judicial on her side... Carol Chambers had to petition on to the Primary ballot because she couldn't win the Party endorsement at the assembly. And yet she found a way to win when all of the insiders thought she was going down in flames.

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

1. Although I like and admire Mike, I'm not supporting him because he's one of Bill Armstrong's boys.
2. I don't have a candidate.
3. Good point about Wilson. How did she blow it?
4. It takes more than money and more than the precinct leaders to win. You need both and then some, including a weak opponent.
5. Again, what's more impressive, winning two state races for treasurer or 2 for 7th CD? Or does it just depend on where you're coming from and on whom you support?

[Joe]

Donald-
What is your beef with Armstrong again?

[RedHawk]

Don, I don't know if it's fair yet to make the assumption that Armstrong is behind Mike. My understanding is that Bill has yet to make an official endorsement. That said...

I think Coors proved something to us in this last cycle: it takes credibility, money, talent, a solid campaign team and a knowledge of the issues to win state wide. Do Coffman and Holtzman meet those basic critera?

[RedHawk]

Lori - there is no question about Scott being a campaigner. His reputation within the 3rd is unquestionable, and he knows how to talk "Western Slope Values" with those of the "Eastern Establishment". But the negative stuff out there will be too much for him to deal with, especially with a guy like BB in the race.

[Joe]

RedHawk-
I am not familiar with Williams and Atkinson....why do you admire them?

[RedHawk]

Thanks, Joe. I think you just gave me an idea for an upcoming post: Rising Stars and Legendary Forces within the Republican Party.

[a]

that's a post i'd like to see, RedHawk.

[Horace Tabor]

Redhawk, will you include your real self in this "Rising Stars and Legendary Forces" post?

[DonaldJohnson]

Joe,
Former Sen. Bill Armstrong, who has supported Coffman in previous campaigns, only supports social radicals. I don't.

Red,

Coffman has statewide credibility, is a talented campaigner, but may come up short on building and keeping a strong campaign team. He's annally detail, from what I have read, which means he doesn't delegate well. An Al Gore kinda guy?

BB has been around a long time and around the state, but that doesn't give him credibility with state issues, only with party politics. He's built a good business, raised money and won two tough races, which makes him attractive to Owens and other powers that be. Whether it's the right combination of assets remains to be seen.

Holtzman is a fund raiser, investment banker, networker. That doesn't make him a politician or give him credibility on state issues. I guess he's a smart Bruce Benson? No chance against the pros, imho.

Scott carries too much baggage as others are noting above. If Rs don't get him, Ds will. He ought to face reality and stick to making money.

By this analysis, which reflects no inside info, its MC vs. BB.

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

I don't mean to say Bruce Benson's not smart. He's a successful businessman and political fund raiser. He just was inept as a candidate for governor and kinda spoiled his reputation as a politician by running.

[Jodie]

In response to Scott's baggage, everybody has baggage, but what Scott also has is heart and a work ethic that won't quit. I'd put my money on Scott any day!!!!!

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

Alert: The Schiavo case is turning 60% to 70% of Americans against Congressional Republicans. This is shown in polls and in comments on a www.wsj.com thread that asks whether the GOP's role in the case will help or hurt the party (63% hurt, 16% help out of more than 2,300 votes).

Question, if the GOP popularity continues to slide as Americans realize their liberty is being threatened by the GOP's religious radicals in Congress, won't party leaders demand that BB hold his seat rather than risk turning it over to a Dem. Won't this take him out of the gubernatorial race. Or will it convince him he can't hold his seat in a 2006 Dem landslide so he might as well run for governor?

[Jack]

People are asking Beauprez to run for governor b/c they realize that holding the governor's seat is a priority for Colorado Republicans, especially if the Dems hold the legislature. As Red Hawk put it, BB is the best shot we've got.