CD-7 Line Update

We didn’t make any changes to the Governor Line, as everything seems to be status quo for the moment. The big changes happened in the CD-7 Line. Here’s what happened…

The big change is that State Representative Morgan Carroll appears likely to get in the race. Carroll is well regarded by core groups of Democrats, such as organized labor and the Be the Change wing of the party, and if she can raise the money she is a dynamic enough candidate to stand out in a crowded field.

We’ve said before here that we thought former State Senator Ed Perlmutter could have trouble getting serious help when he starts picking up the phone for support, and it sounds like rumors are already flying. Here’s a good example of what we mean:

Some of you might remember the attack ads Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave ran against Stan Matsunaka in both of the last two campaigns in CD-4. The ads carried the tagline “Real Coloradans Pay Their Taxes.” Those ads received a lot of criticism for the blatant racial overtones in how they depicted Matsunaka, but the tagline was based on an incident that relates to Perlmutter.

Prior to the 2002 election, Perlmutter suggested to Matsunaka that his small law firm merge with Perlmutter’s firm of Berenbaum, Weinkshienk & Eason. Matsunaka agreed, and as part of the deal Perlmutter’s firm agreed to assume various bills, including the business tax. Matsunaka forwarded those bills to Perlmutter, including final notices of the “pay now or a lien will be filed” variety, but despite promises the bill was never paid.

The subsequent lien gave Musgrave the issue that Matsunaka believes may have cost him that first election, if not the second. Matsunaka briefly referred to the Berenbaum incident in a 2002 newspaper article but was otherwise quiet about it. Perlmutter still could have saved his former fellow state senator by going to the press and taking the blame himself, but he didn’t. The merger never went through, either.

We’ve said before that Perlmutter is notorious for over-promising and under-delivering when it came to political help and fundraising for candidates. Will it come back to haunt him in his own race? It sounds like some of those folks are already starting to raise an eyebrow or two.

As for the other candidates making moves, Joanna Conti falls even further, while Jim Polsfut makes a slight rise. Conti falls because of word that top Democrats, such as Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, are asking her to drop out of the race. Conti has no hope of winning the seat in CD-7 and would only serve as a distraction, and a fundraising barrier, to other Democratic candidates. When the top leaders in your party are asking you to step aside, your candidacy isn’t off to a very good start. To her credit, Conti is making fundraising calls, though she’s telling potential donors that she’s running against Bob Beauprez.

As for Polsfut, he seems to be getting serious about a run and has announced the formation of an “exploratory committee,” which is Latin for “I’m running for congress but reserve the right to back out without being called a quitter.”  However, it’s a long way from being serious to being competitive, and we’re unconvinced that Polsfut can pose a serious challenge in a Democratic primary.

Comments

[Denver Woman]

One reason Stan Matsunaka lost -- both times -- is that he alienated much of his base by cosponsoring a concealed weapons bill late in the 2002 session of the Colorado legislature.

[Ter Ducken]

Conti's a joke. You shouldn't even list her.

[vladimir]

So, Ed screwed his pal Stan Matsunaka --
Just what one would expect from Ed -- you know but for that tax issue Stan was Mr. Clean -- I'd be curious if Ed has the guts to come clean and take the blame --

[learnedhand]

so at the meeting of cd7 dems last night Perlmutter was there, so was Garcia. No M-Carroll though...

[Strider]

When you say, "The big change is that State Representative Morgan Carroll appears likely to get in the race." Where does this information come from? Is this something that Morgan said?

[joe]

Who cares what Joan says? Nobody else in the party ever listens to her. She's a joke because she's such a jerk. And, it's well known that nobody respects her, because she's one of the meanest people you'll ever meet. I didn't think much of Conti before, but now I have more respect knowing that Joan is against her run.

[timmy]

Pulsfut was a joke. But, now more serious. He's hired campaign staff; and good campaign staff. Anyone who's worked a Dem race in Colorado over the last two cycles has met Field guy, Brian "Bif" Freeman. I think everyone who's worked with Bif respects his hard work and intellegince. Pulsfut got a great campaign staffer in Bif, and will be rising on your chart soon.

[Alfalfa]

Beyond your Latin translation of Polsfut's "exploratory committee," the legal definition is a committee is a committee is a committee. As far as I know, at the federal level there is no distinction between what someone calls an "exploratory committee" and a bona-fide candidate committee - they both operate under the exact same laws.

You can form a committee and call it "Jim Bob's Committee to Think Hard About A Congressional Race," but regardless of whether or not you call you say you're running, once you hit the FEC's $5k threshold, you are a candidate in their eyes.

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

Rick O'Donnel announced this morning at the Arapahoe Republican Men's Club that he believes BB will run for Gov. (not news), that the White House considers CD-7 the top district or one of the top five that must be defended in '06 and that beginning April 1, he will start raising money for his primary campaign. He noted BB won re-election by 12 percentage points and said he believes that by holding Rs, winning over Is and taking some Ds, he can take the seat.

He gave an impressive outline of the higher education reforms his agency is making in the state. Sharp guy, very personable and will be a strong candidate again.

[JeffCoDems]

On top of screwing over Stan M. it appears Ed P. is breaking other commitments... he and his wife are spliting up. Not a good way to start the campaign. Good to hear about Bif joining Polsfut, hope he listens to his advice the last Polsfut campaign was a joke. I volunteered twice and said seeya joined Gail S. effort.

[Ter Ducken]

Morgan was there. I saw her early on.

[Phoenix Rising]

I'm interested in the strength of the Morgan Carroll rumor... Are we talking more than just pipedreams here? Vague interest? Working towards the $5k target? Has $5k and is finding staff? C'mon - tell us a story...

[learnedhand]

>Morgan was there. I saw her early on.

I guess I missed her then. Thanks...

[Daniel DiRito]

While I appreciate the dialogue generated by Coloradopols, it seems to me that the discussion about CD-7 is more about airing grudges and backstabbing than finding the best Democrat for the job based upon the ability to garner votes.

Morgan Carroll may be an up and coming Democrat but assuming that her support from Be The Change and possibly organized labor translates into votes in the district is flawed. She is dynamic and well spoken but will her positions sell in an at best moderate demographic...I don't think so. She likely has a future but it's not in
CD-7.

Once again pundits seem to be focused on hype rather than sound analysis. Without doubt, Perlmutter and Lamm are the obvious frontrunners. Both are well known, experienced, and fit the voter profile far better than the other Democratic candidates. Lamm has the added advantage of a moderate position with respect to gun control. Both Perlmutter and Lamm will command attention from national organizations.

It seems all too often Colorado politics is conducted with the small fish bowl mentality...it's played in isolation by the same group of guppies that believe their insights and instincts are beyond reproach. Whatever happened to setting aside petty infighting in order to run solid candidates who have the potential to win...does everything have to be about who can play more games?

When all is said and done, the voters of
CD-7 will elect the candidate best aligned with their interests...the Democrats would do well to spend a little time pondering that issue.

[Phoenix Rising]

Daniel,

I have no horse in this race (yet), though I am a Be The Change USA member and am very impressed by Morgan Carroll. If Ed Perlmutter, Peggy Lamm, or Joanna Conti come out on top, I'll be there to provide support.

But if you think Morgan Carroll doesn't fit the demographic, you should probably be looking at her State House district... It's a conservative Dem district, but Morgan is by no means a conservative Dem. Musgrave's views don't represent a majority viewpoint in CD-4 either, but when combined with other factors, she keeps winning.

Views are only part of an election. Funding, energy, visibility, name recognition, and perceived integrity are all part of the equation. I'm holding off on my support for a bit to view the field. If Dems are looking for the electable candidate, we need to take in all the options.

[DonkeyKong]

Phoenix:

You're right, "Funding, energy, visibility, name recognition, and perceived integrity are all part of the equation." For that reason, Peggy Lamm is by far and away the best candidate. As are all of the folks Big Horn -- Go Peggy, Go Rutt. They have both proven that energy and their dedication to the party and the ideals we embrace as Democrats.

[Ter Ducken]

Campaigns are popularity contests, first and foremost. If you are a Democrat, who excites you in that field? Perlmutter? Please. Lamm? Not me. Polsfut and Conti? Boring. I hope Morgan Carroll does run. We need someone interesting.

[DonkeyKong]

Interesting doesn't make for a winner. We need a proven candidate with energy, personality and the ability to raise big bucks.

[Phoenix Rising]

DK, Peggy hasn't committed yet. Of the lot, I've heard both Conti and Carroll. Both are engaging speakers, with Carroll getting a definite edge. Conti has proven that she can raise money (though not necessarily that she knows how to spend it well). Carroll has proven that she can win an election in a moderate district (but I question her moving up so quickly and abandoning her Legislative seat so soon...). I want to hear Peggy, Jim, and Ed speak before committing anything, though...

This is the hottest race in the country, folks. Both sides of the aisle should be looking to put their best foot forward.

[Jake]

I find all the hacks shilling for Morgan Carroll hilarious. She hasn't passed any bills, her major piece of legislation has been back to committee so many times that it needs a passport and then she can't even get a majority of her own party to vote for it. She is an anti-business elitist trial lawyer! I hope she runs, what fun!!!

[Strider]

"She is an anti-business elitist trial lawyer!"

Congradulations! You get the prize for the most BS buzz words used in one paragraph.

If you are referring to HB 1018. We will see if you are touting the same crud in about 2 or 3 weeks.

Take a look at her resume, you . . . you . . right wing blogger man!

[Phoenix Rising]

Okay, I'll bite, what the heck...

I am sick and tired of hearing stuff like "anti-business elitist trial lawyer" being used in an insulting and denigrating way. Abraham Lincoln was a trial lawyer. Richard Nixon was a lawyer with a record of passing "anti-business" legislation such as the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, and the EPA, each of which have saved countless lives. And if Bobby Kennedy was an elitist, then I'd be happy to stand at his side to fight for the rights of all Americans.

Trial lawyers like Morgan Carroll - who is associated with the ACLU - often take the cases of average citizens wronged by the government and large corporations. They fight against multi-million dollar legal teams for the rights of people like you and me. Many are driven by causes, not cash; the ACLU is currently defending Rush Limbaugh against medical record seizures, e.g..

A few bad apples exist in any profession, but trial lawyers have done their part over the years protecting our society from abuses by those in power.

[sparky]

Hacks? Shilling? Hilarious? I guess when it comes from the other side it's considered passionate citizens espousing the obvious and correct point of view.

How about we just put them on the ballot and vote? I think that's how it's supposed to work, no?

[Ter Ducken]

Here, here. This nonsense about calling every Democrat an "elitist" is really lame. Stop repeating everything that Rush Limbaugh and Hugh Hewitt say and try thinking for yourself. "Look at me, I repeated some buzzwords I heard today!" L-A-M-E.

[James C. Hess]

Matsunaka lost twice because, despite efforts by the mainstream news media, specifically "The Coloradoan" and "The Reporter-Herald" to spin for him, voters knew him for what he was and still:

A Liberal parasite.