Coffman Exit Mucks Up Two Lines

State Treasurer Mike Coffman's unexpected exit from the 2006 governor's race makes for significant changes in both the Governor Line and the CD-7 Line. We'll start at the top...

The writing had been on the wall for Coffman regarding the governor's race, and his exit had as much to do with Congressman Bob Beauprez's frontrunner status as it did with Marc Holtzman's reported fundraising prowess. Holtzman has been widely reported to have raised a half-million dollars for his campaign in the first quarter of 2005 (official numbers may be available this week), which meant that Coffman was behind Beauprez in total perception and behind Holtzman in fundraising -- and that's way too far behind to be. He could overcome one or the other, but not both.

This is actually bigger news for Holtzman than it is for Beauprez, because it makes Holtzman appear tougher by validating his possible strength as a candidate. Coffman's exit puts Holtzman in a two-horse race with Bobby B for the Republican nomination, and if the DU President can continue to raise the type of money he is reported to have come up with already, Beauprez will have a real race on his hands.

There could be even further repurcussions that might play out here, but this is pure speculation on our part: if Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper enters the race, and Holtzman shows the ability to raise absurd amounts of money, then Beauprez may really have to consider whether giving up his seat in CD-7 is worth the risk. He would have to win not one, but two tough races to become governor. And if he loses his bid for governor after giving up his congressional seat, then what does he do? He's pretty much done politically at that point.

The other dominos that fall with Coffman's exit land in CD-7, as our own Red Hawk has already addressed. Coffman's pullout is bad news for three expressed CD-7 candidates: Rick O'Donnell, Mark Paschall, and Joanna Conti.

If Coffman decides to run for congress in CD-7, which is a serious possibility, at the very least he steps into the race even with O'Donnell. While O'Donnell has the advantage of being in Jefferson County, where CD-7 will be decided for all intents and purposes, he does not have the same Republican base that Coffman has.

Paschall has reportedly indicated that he would not run for congress in CD-7 if Coffman does, which is probably as much a reflection of his respect for Coffman as it is for his respect for reality. Paschall could play the conservative option role to O'Donnell in a primary, but with both Coffman and O'Donnell in the race, his role goes from conservative option to third wheel.

A possible Coffman run in CD-7 really hurts Conti, because as the strength of the GOP side of the ticket grows, so does the necessity for the strongest possible Democratic opponent. This was already going to be one of the top targeted races in the country, if not the top target, and Conti's only hope was to try to just hang around and stay competitive up to the primary. Now Democratic donors who haven't already done so are going to ignore her altogether as they take a closer look at which Dems have the best shot at picking up the seat. Conti never really had a chance anyway, but each new candidate just pushes her further and further down.

As for the rest of the Democratic field, a possible Coffman run doesn't change much. While he could be a stronger opponent than O'Donnell, he's certainly not strong enough to scare off the top Dems. In fact, Coffman's entry could actually make it easier for Ed Perlmutter, Peggy Lamm, and possibly Jim Polsfut to raise money; now they can change their pitch to say "it's a tough Republican field and I really need your help to raise more money."

Comments

[west sloper]

It looks more and more like McInnis is going to take this through to the end, though. While coloradopols is convinced his background will prevent him from winning in november, it doesn't prevent him from trying. And since the GOP will be eager to keep it clean in the primary, it doesn't keep McInnis from being strong in August.

Which means there's no way this becomes a two-man race betwen Holtzman and Beauprez. It will be a two-man race between Beauprez and McInnis.

Holtzman's money makes him credible, but his best option is to let the other two duke it out, and try to slide by with 40%.

[thinking]

It's becoming more and more obvious that Holtzman still intends to petition on to the ballot. It might me BB and Scotty at the State Assembly - but no matter what, I think we'll still see Mark in the Primary.

[Alfalfa]

I'm not convinced Coffman is a world beater of Dems in 7. Him getting into the race is definitely something the Democrats need to be concerned about, but the voters in the 7th District might not take to a hardcore conservative like Mike Coffman.

Granted, Beauprez has a pretty conservative voting record in DC, but that has never come through in his campaigns. He's done a great job of cultivating a moderate "I'm for Colorado" image while in the state, but then in DC he simply goes along with whatever conservative agenda the White House and Tom DeLay are pushing.

Cultivating a moderate image in the district has been smart for Beauprez given 7 is so evenly split and seems to be tilting towards the Democrats. Also, he's got a strong constituent service operation. Both of these facts off-set the reality that his voting record is a lot more conservative than the district.

I just don't see Coffman being able to pull off the same trick. He'd be a strong candidate in 7, but he'd be beatable. He seems much more suited politically with 6, which could also be an option for him if Tancredo doesn't run again. Of course, Coffman would have to fight Andrews in that District.

[right winger]

I'm not so sure Coffman's conservative nature really hurts him that much, although it depends more on who the Dem nominee is.

Coffman's not Bob Schaffer - he knows how to campaign on the right without throwing his views in everyone's face. He's more in tune with the Beauprez style of being a conservative, but not talking about guns and god every twenty seconds. He knows to keep the discussion focused on fscal and economic issues - and with the way the Colorado economy is rebounding, the Dems are going to need something else to campaign on.

I don't think anyone has made the argument that Mike's a world-beater in November. The argument has been made a couple of times, and suggested by Red Hawk, that he's the prohibitive favorite in the primary, but no one has said that about November.

That said, I do think he shakes up the Dem field a little. Given the questions I've heard on this blog about Perlmutter's courage, he may just drop out. Which is ironic, because he's the guy that could beat Mike. Nominating a liberal, such as an Emily's List candidate, probably does make Mike the favorite to win in November. Dems are obviously trending upward in JeffCo, but those suburban voters are still queasy about "liberal" "anti-family" candidates.

[jeffrey]

Don't forget that after the primary Coffman will have Beauprez stumping by his side. And unless Hickenlooper gets in, Beauprez will have lots of free time to stump for other candidates.

[jack]

Alva - I'm really disappointed. You've been fair on this race but your spin on Coffman's announcement is pretty thick. He dropped out because of Beauprez pure and simple. A lot of your previous posts on the primary say the more candidates, the harder it is for Beauprez to win. Now we have fewer candidates... and your logic changes? Come on, let's be fair... with today's Denver Post article Beauprez should be back where he was at 2-1.

[CMorgan]

Sorry, Jack. Based on the Denver Post EDITORIAL, which many have said echoes the feedback Beauprez is receiving from around the state regarding his bid for Governor, there are many factors affecting his standing...well beyond the Colorado Pols Lineup. People like Beauprez but want him to stay put, and they are speaking up. Holtzman can certainly raise the money, and McInnis has the political expertise, grassroots support, and campaigning experience to be a serious contender. With those three power hitters in the Governor's race, the decision was basically made for Coffman, although it does smack of typical "back room" politics!

[Alva Adams]

I don't follow, Jack. We've had Beauprez as the GOP favorite for weeks.

[lisa beck]

Don't forget, Coffman doesn't live in the 7th, which will hurt him getting at the grassroots--critical in this district. And, what's going through the grapevine is that Beauprez folks are backing O'Donnell for the GOP nod.

[check the facts]

Lisa B. check the history books Beauprez didn't live in the district either, but Coffman has been elected statewide twice and his old Senate District (pre redistricting) covers some of the 7th. My money still goes with Rick O. he has the major players in the party behind him both grassroots and money but he should not underestimate Coffman he is a tough campaigner with a good bio. I would like to see Coffman take on Tancredo. War Veteran vs. Section 8 draft dodger who broke his term limits pledge.

[lisa beck]

True. But not living in the district still needs to be offset with an advantage; and, unfortunately for Coffman, the key advantages (major players/grassroots) sound to be already locked up by O'Donnell.

[justin]

O'Donnell had all those endorsements lined up before Coffman got in the race. And, remember, Coffman's still not in it. But the fact that every one felt O'Donnell was a better candidate than Paschall does not mean they'll feel he's a better candidate than Coffman.

It's kind of like all the state legislators who lined up behind Schaffer early last year, but once Coors got into the race, they couldn't be found. They couldn't withdraw support, but wouldn't do anything to actively help Schaffer either.

A similar thing applies to the grassroots. Many of them, including me, really really like Rick. But Mike's a heavy-hitter, and we've really really liked him for a decade longer than we've really really liked Rick.

Should Coffman get into the race, he changes the dynamics dramatically, and when the situation changes, people have the right to re-assess who they support. O'Donnell may find himself on the short end of that reassessment - again.

[Dylan]

The most interesting thing about Coffman dropping out is he indicated he is also looking to SOS along with the 7th. Why? SOS does not seem like a step up from Tresurer..is Mitchell still in for SOS?