Coffman Out

Word came last night Mike Coffman has decided not to run for Governor in 2006.  Thanks to Nobody and Blogicus Maximus for tipping Colorado Pols readers last night to this late developing story.  Here's the AP's Steven Paulson's write-up.  Paulson gets this week's Jimmy Olsen ace reporter award for beating everyone on this story.

We'll have more analysis on this development as the weekend goes on and Mighty Mike is officially moved off the governor's line (and perhaps on to the CD-7 line?).  But a few quick thoughts.

First off, Coffman's statement, as gleaned from the AP story, is a pretty backhanded endorsement of Bobby B:

I think I would make a great governor, but frankly the timing is just not right for me to run. Rep. Bob Beauprez has earned the front-runner status on the Republican side,” Coffman said in a statement given Friday night to The Associated Press. “He has the ability and the financial resources necessary to win.”

He refused to answer any questions, saying it was a tough decision for him.

Coffman said he had a stronger track record as a fiscal conservative than Beauprez and was confident he would do well at the state convention, but he didn’t want to hurt the party with a divisive primary.

“Colorado needs a strong, conservative leader to tackle the many challenges facing this state,” Coffman said.

Coffman seems to jumping on the Bobby B. Bandwagon, but he sure ain't driving the vehicle with that kind of language.  Still, it's an acknowledgment that Beauprez is the top dog on the Republican side.  And, by getting out of the race for Beauprez, CD-7 becomes a strong possibility for Coffman.  Coffman also now has a chit in his back pocket to go after the incumbent's official blessing in this race.  Though, Beauprez might want to re-read Coffman's "strong" endorsement language from last night when considering this option.

Second, as campaign finance filing time is coming, we're guessing the rumors of Marc Holtzman raising $500K are true.  And, that Coffman wasn't going to show anywhere near that kind of strength.   If this is the case, getting out before having to show your cards is a smart move by Coffman; it protects his political position for another race.

Finally, despite some chinks starting to show in Beauprez's armor, he still is the Republicans best chance for holding the Governor's chair.  And, Coffman's statement indicates the Congressman is going for it. Bob Martinez and his team in the Elephant Pen have to be pretty happy with last night's developments as it gets them one step closer to avoiding a nasty primary fight.

Comments

[about time]

www.mikecoffman.com has the story posted from the denverchannel.com - no more info, no formal press release, nothing.

which confirms what most of us, except Donald E.L. Johnson, have been expecting. The only question is, how long until he jumps into the race for the 7th?

Coffman's entry into the 7th can push Paschall out (which we Republicans are begging to do anyway), and set up a long and brutal primary with Rick O'Donnell.

Now, Rick and Mike are both stand-up guys, who go into this primary running about even. If they keep it clean, they can probably emerge from it with the GOP looking stronger than ever for that seat. But do we want to waste that kind of money, hoping that the NRCC will bail us out when we're short in October?

And will the loser of that race have any career in elected office left? Rick will be a two-time loser, and Mike will have been toppled by a giant-killer. In that dynamic, will they have any incentive to keep it clean?

[tyler]

"who go into this primary running about even."

Are you serious? I know that O'Donnell has been building traction in that district for four years, but you've got to consider Coffman the frontrunner if he gets in.

Coffman will be able to lock up the convention with 60%. He's never had a primary opponent because he's so strong with the base - he always keeps his rivals off the ballot at the convo. Now, he won't be able to shut O'Donnell out, but he'll have a very strong showing.

Coffman will be at least even with fundraising. He'll have a stronger, larger volunteer base. He has the better resume (best reumse in the state, really).

I like O'Donnell, but he's starting from behind on this one.

[johnson]

I'm inclined to agree with tyler here. Rick's good, and I'll be thrilled to support him if he ins the primary, but Coffman's got to be our go-to guy here.

[red riddle]

Coffman's got the stature to make half the Dems drop out of the race. Perlmutter, specifically - he'll back down again and let Peggy Lamm have at go at Coffman. And she won't beat him.

[Areyouserious?]

First, Coffman (unlike O'Donnell or Beauprez when he made his first run) has a voting record than can be exploited to show just how right of center he is.

Second, Coffman doesn't live in the district.

Third, if he gets into the seventh he looks desperate.

Fourth, Coffman has certainly done the dog and pony show at the Lincoln day dinners, but all of that has been building for a statewide race.

Fifth, Coffman comes from Arapahoe county, not the largest part of the 7th and he definetly doesn't have the same kind of traction in Jefferson County.

[Essaywhuman?!!]

This is all based on the premis that BB will actually run for Governor. My intellegence tells me he is recieving major pressure from Bush, Delay, and the rest of those guys to keep still. Considering all the money, time and effort the national party has put into that district the last four years, that pressure is very real. I also failed to mention the fact that BB has recieved some very choice committee assignments, also done to keep him in office. My guess is that Coffman may be forced to ride off into the sunset.

[little dog]

Use your head. BB didn't announce an exploratory committee without going through that whole process first. The pressure from DC was there and had been considered, weighed, and dealt well before the decision had been made.

Beauprez is running for governor. Any speculation to the contrary is simply begind the times.

[tyler]

Coffman won't look desperate if he waits a month or two, or even three, before announcing for the 7th. That's probably the only reason he didn't announce it at the same time, was to avoid the appearance of "seat shopping".

Living in the district didn't stop Beauprez, or anybody else.

I'd bet large sums of money that Coffman has more friends, name ID, following, and everything else that goes with office, in JeffCo than O'Donnell does.

And being "too conservative" didn't stop Beauprez, did it?

Face it - the guy is a contender, and if he plays his cards right, he can be the frontrunner by the end of the summer.

[Ohplease!]

I like Coffman quite a bit, but he peaked way to early (which is why he is out of the Gov's race).

As far as name ID goes, I am not convinced that state treasurer does much better than any other office holder in the state, or anyone else that has been in the paper often.

Coffman will look desperate because he can't afford to wait a month or two or three before getting in the race. People are raising money and getting commitments already. Does anyone really beleive that BB is not in the Gov's race?? Would any smart candidate sit back and wait at this point before trying to raise money?

[damon]

Getting a late start doesn't hurt as much as all us hacks think it does. Beauprez got in late four years ago. People get in late all the time. Remember, we're 19 months out. There could be strong contenders popping up 7 months from now. That's life.

But Coffman can start building his organization and his support network long before announcing. All he needs to do is not file a committee or announce for a few months. He can still get on the phone and start drumming up support among the big donors, key endorsements, and other powers-that-be.

Not having a committee filed hurts his fundraising, but by letting people know he's in, that hurts O'Donnell's fundraising too.

I understand that there's a lot of hesitance towards conservatives ever since last year's primary, with good reason. But you can't laugh Mike Coffman off. He doesn't get along with the governor, but that doesn't stop Benson and the others from looking at the race objectively, and seeing a strong candidate.

[One Point]

I just wanted to point out that everyone got a late start 4 years ago since no one knew where the district was. Let's not forget about the D's refusal to draw lines and waiting for a judge to do it.

[Really??]

Damon - -

If Coffman could get on the phone and raise money and get endorsements, why wasn't he able to for the Gov's race?? The big names and big money were not there for him in the Gov's race, what makes you think they will be there for him in a much more difficult race for him to win, like the 7th?

[common sense]

Two different races. nobody though coffman could beat hickenlooper, and so they did every thing they could to recruit beauprez. peggy lamm is a whole different scenario. and one that favors coffman. "Iron Mike" is probably the GOP's vest hope in the 7th (assuming the DP editorial doesn't scare off Beauprez).

[vladimir]

Hey -- let us not let this one die.
Friends of Perlmutter and Feeley -- Is Feeley backing Perlmutter or Lamm? Come on someone should be able to answer that one -- particularly those who were extolling their great and good friendship -- funny part is that Feeley got beat not by being painted as a liberal but by being painted a special interest shill -- the same paint worked on Strickland and I bet the Reps have a coat or two of that brand of paint ready to cover Perlmutter with -- they don't have to smear those guys as they just wallon in special interest muck and it just needs to be pointed out -- Feeley and Strickland could not respond to the attacks cause they were 100% true --

[John Kelly]

Every time I talk to or hear about some of the top GOP organization and finance people in Colorado and DC, they are all backing O'Donnell and actively helping him put his campaign team and plan in place. What I hear: Rick is raising in the first month more than he raised his entire primary cycle last time.

And O'Donnell's already got public backing of party leaders ranging from Bruce Benson to Bill Armstrong to Hank Brown to Terry Considine.

[ralphcarr]

vladimir -- I have it on good authority that Feeley is supporting Perlmutter. Ask him and he will confirm it.

[RedHawk]

John Kelly - all of that was BEFORE Coffman resigned. The world has changed in the 7th CD...

[vladimir]

ralphcarr -- good authority that Mike Feeley is backing Ed Perlmutter. Hmmm how come Mike is asking his friends to support Lamm? Ed did allow Mike to treat the Senate
in 2001 as his big rock candy mountain -- that is how Mike got into trouble lobbying for terrible legislation that came back to haunt him -- By the way how come no one defends Eddie for not paying Matsunaka's taxes -- or is there no denying that one.
And hey Mr Ed supporter name one -- just one great piece of legislation passed by Mr
Ed