« The Old Mens Club | Main | Don't Look Now... »

Comments

blogicus maximus

I also have a posting at MHD that has a link to Ciruli's website and numbers.

Gold Dome

Holy Sh#* Owens is at 87/8 with GOP, looks like the goof troop of Republican legislators attack him don't read poll numbers very well wake up boys and draft behind Owens maybe you all can get back into leadership that way.

Strider

Man get over the Hick thing! Some one here must REALLY want Hick to run.

Hugo Oconor

ok, maybe I'm just missing the obvious but they have total numbers, GOP numbers and independent numbers. Where are the democrat numbers? And just how or why were they able to break out Hick's and Owen's numbers without breaking out Salazar/Allard/Bush?

try again

hugo, highlight the numbers and run the mouse cursor all the way to the right. Dems are on there, but you need to scroll the middle section of the page over. think "click and drag"

Alva Adams

Again, this has absolutely nothing to do with our desire to see Hickenlooper run for governor. There is a bigger picture here in that Hick's decision will create a huge ripple effect throughout the entire field of candidates for governor and on down through state house and senate races. THAT is why we mention Hick so often - because it matters in a much larger sense.

If Hick runs, the Dem field clears. If Hick runs, Beauprez may not run. If Hick runs, it appears as though the Dems will have the frontrunner in the governor's race. If the Dems have the frontrunner in the governor's race, they have an advantage all the way down the ticket in November 2006.

If Hick does NOT run, the reverse is true. Beauprez, or perhaps Holtzman, becomes the favorite, which in turn helps the entire Republican ticket. The Dems have to find a candidate, and perhaps may end up in a primary.

Now in either scenario a lot can change before Nov. 2006, but right now that's how things look. It's easy to just point a finger and say "You're just trying to promote Hickenlooper for governor," but that's a simple argument that doesn't address why this is more important in a much broader sense. We're trying to analyze how things are going to shake out in Colorado, and there's a lot more at stake here. Hick's decision changes the race.

Hick is, and has always been, the key to how the governor's race will unfold in the next 18 months. That's not because we want it to be that way - that's how it is.

Joe

This poll doesn't prove anything about your fascination about Hick. He's got 15 % lower name ID than Salazar and it's only front range. Imagine the larger spread Salazar would have over Hick if the universe included the entire state (not just the front range).

Even more proof that he's lacking...Hicks name ID is lower than anyone else INCLUDING ALLARD. Again, imagine the difference if this were statewide. He'd be far below the others in statewide name ID.

Alva, by now you've recognized how well read your blog is among politicos. You know that what you write here affects real world politics. By pumping up Hick, when everyone close to the man continues to hear that he's not going to run, you are affecting the race and other candidates legitamacy. I understand why you remain announomous, but I am starting to think that you have an agenda...

Cat

Alva, we don't think you want Hick to run. We think you're a Republican insider trying to undercut Rutt / Ritter / Romanoff and other Dems. You want people to think that when Hick finally announces that he's not running that (quoting you) "Beauprez, or perhaps Holtzman, becomes the favorite." You are pumping up Republicans by pumping up Hick.

wonderwoman

Hick running is a pipe dream for the Democrats. It is time to face the facts, he is not going to run beacuse he knows he cannot win. Further, why would he ruin his political future for an office that he doesn't even want?

Alva Adams

Okay, you caught us. We confess. Here's our secret plan: we're trying to pump up Hickenlooper in order to make it look like we are Republicans trying to make other Democrats look bad. Then, when the Democratic candidates are summarily defeated, we will use the false sense of security of the Republicans against them, and immediately throw our support behind a Green Party candidate who will appear out of nowhere as the savior for all of Colorado. Then, when we have installed our Green candidate, the three of us will be awarded cabinet positions as joint-Secretaries of Blogs, from which we will rule over the entire Colorado internet with a super blog funded at taxpayer expense.

Chill

I wish Alva wouldn't make defensive statements, much less unprovoked ones. I thought we had gone through this.

a

"Hicks name ID is lower than anyone else INCLUDING ALLARD"

did you read the numbers? Hickenlooper: 61. Allard: 53. fuzzy math, dude. fuzzy math.

dems06plan

Can anyone confirm the rumour that the Dems in the legislature will make Election Day a State Holiday? If true, this would boost turnout which will help the D's who usually loose ground in non-presidential years. This kind of manuever whould be hard to stop politically and might get Hick (or other big name/risk averse Democrats) into the game (he knows the historical trends). This probably won't happen this session, but possibly early in '06. Anyone hear this besides me?

Alva Adams

Your point is well taken, Chill, once again. But this was more of an attempt to explain the overall importance of how Hickenlooper fits into the grand scheme of things.

Everyone is going to believe what they want to believe regarding our "secret motives," and we can't control that or even worry about it (though I couldn't resist adding my own "secret motive").

Joe

a,

there's a difference between favorability and name ID. Do the math. Using your logic Bush has 54% name ID. He actually has 99% name ID. It's Pos and Neg combined.

Roger D

There was an old TV show starring Walter Brennan (can't remember the name of the show) in which Brennan (it was a western) constantly used the line - "No Brag, just fact."

I am amazed at the number of (what I assume to be) astute political types cannot get past their own political biases, wishes, desires, and skewed vision of the world and face political fact. I guess people would rather 'spin'.

In this case, when political reality is dealt with, rather than offer cogent arguments as to the appropriateness or cogency of the what is being stated, people immediately want to get into some kind of spin or name calling.

When the operators of this blog posit something, we get wild postings trying to offset political 'fact' with 'spin'.

Will Hickenlooper run? Who knows, but there is plenty of reason to believe that he will. Can someone offer arguments as to why they believe that he will not run. Of Course. And they can be sound, credible arguments.

Are Hickenlooper's polling numbers strong? Of course they are. And citing those numbers should not be construed as 'pumping up Hickenlooper.' I have no idea whether Alva, et al, are supportive of Hick or not - nor do I care. Their support of lack of support does not change political reality.

Make your cogent arguments regarding the validity of polling or the why some polling numbers might be skewed, if you have reason to believe that they are, but don't resort to playground style blabber.

I am not a particularly big fan of Hickenlooper. But that does not keep me from recognizing his tremendous appeal among metro voters.

I really dislike Bill Owens, but I would never let that color my recognition of his tremendous skill as a politician and his ability to remain popular - and electable - despite what I believe to be huge negatives.

Disagree with Alva, et al, but try to base your disagreement and discussion of politics in political fact and reality, not mindless partisan dribble.

demssuck

That Election Day Holiday is a sneaky / snarky idea. I don't think the dems are that smart, but if so, my party could be going down clear creek without a kayak.

Timmy

I wish the Dems were that smart. To name election day a holiday. Our side never seems to fight as well as the Reps. While we're at it, CEA should put it in their collective bargain agreements.

Timmy

I wish the Dems were that smart. To name election day a holiday. Our side never seems to fight as well as the Reps. While we're at it, CEA should put it in their collective bargain agreements.

Hank

You guys are greens?

Me too!

Roger D

Actually, I've heard that the Repubs intend to introduce legislation to again ban the sale of liquor on election day. We will go back to those horrible days when bars couldn't open until 7pm on election day.

Steve

Hickenlooper doesn't have a prayer. I posted this on my blog last week: http://coloradocomments.blogspot.com


I am a big fan of Mayor John Hickenlooper. He hasn’t got a prayer to be governor.

There is a movement among moderate Democrats to get “Hick” to run for the governor’s office next year. If they could get the governor’s office and control of the State House and Senate, it would be a major coup.

Why is the draft Hick movement trying to get the former geologist to run?

-- Hickenlooper is extremely popular in Denver
-- He reached out to other cities in the Metro area ending years of an “us vs. them” mentality, making him palatable to others
-- He is a successful businessman, which appeals to fiscal conservative independents
-- He appears to be a pragmatist
-- He doesn’t pick cronies for jobs but the best people to fill them
--And, last but not least, he is a really likable guy


One problem: He supported gay unions/marriage. (Click here and here for the full stories.)

Now, political strategists know precinct maps, they can tell you block by block how people voted, and which neighborhoods have better voter turn out than others. They know the numbers of how many registered voters are in what party. They poll the issues, they understand election politics, they know what makes Coloradans tick. And, I’m sure, some of these strategist are behind the effort to get Hickenlooper to run.

Please, get real.

With the political pull that social conservatives have in Colorado and the fact that they run Colorado Springs as a boot camp, how in the world do they expect our fair mayor to overcome that political juggernaut?

I know, there were nay sayers about the ability for Democrats to win the State Senate and House. When I heard the news, I thought someone was mistaken. That accomplishment was a major victory due to great political strategy and execution. But a state-wide office race is a different animal.

Yes, we know that Ken Salazar beat Pete Coors for the U.S. Senate. That was no walk in the park and the race could have gone either way. But, Ken was a moderate guy, Colorado native from the San Luis Valley, and was the State Attorney General. Not some “gay-loving liberal from Denver.”

The social conservatives the run the state Republican Party didn’t like the beer seller much and didn’t pull out all stops to support his campaign. But, if the Democrats put up a candidate that is openly supportive of gay unions, the social conservative troops would rally to defeat him.

Like I said, I’m a fan of Hickenlooper and I think he would be a very good governor. But if Democrats want to take back the state’s top political spot, they’re going to have to find someone else to run.

Ter Ducken

Suppose Hickenlooper wasn't open in his support for gay rights. Suppose that he was completely against gay rights. Would the people who concern themselves with that issue vote for him then?

Nope, they'd still vote for the Republican.

It is completely irrelevant that Hick supports gay rights. None of those people were going to vote for him anyway. Every Dem who runs for governor will speak in favor of gay rights in some regard. This is NOT the issue that will decide the governor's race.

It's the same argument on the Democratic side with environmentalists. What if Pete Coors really had been great for the environment? Would he have gotten those environmentalist votes then?

Nope. They're still voting for the Democrat.

Sorry, dude, but this is not the issue to take down Hick or any other Dem with.

peterco

I love "the webmaster has an agenda" crisis that comes up every day on this page.

So let's summarize the comment types that have occured at some point in the past ones.

1. Alva et al. are Democrats secretly pushing for Hickenlooper to be Governor in some grand scheme.
2. It is some bizarro reverse physcology trick by a Republican to make everyone but Hick look bad.
3. They should release their names, so people can track them down and determine what party they are. Then they can discount all comments because they are partisan hacks for whatever side.
4. They are people who get excited by creating news, a la Drudge. Not very likely.
5. Defending comments, saying go somewhere else if you like it. Even news is propaganda, dependent on the reporting.

All of the main candidates have flaws, and there is no cruise to victory candidate. Anyone saying that for Hick or BB is just a cheerleader.

Could you post a picture of all three of you with bags over your head? Maybe that would help?
http://www.mrxswebpage.com/

Keith

Ter Ducken- Independents are socially conservative leaning in Colorado. Remember Amendment 2.

Hick can't be pro homosexual and governor.

The comments to this entry are closed.