Line Changes Aplenty

We've updated the Governor, CD-7, and Legislature Lines. Here's what's what...

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper drops even with Congressman Bob Beauprez because of uncertainty about whether he'll run for governor, even though he got some great press this week. There are whispers that he has told others he "has no intentions" of running, but he has yet to come out and definitively say "I'm not running," or "the Democrats have some great candidates for governor." He's still leaving the door open, but it's not as wide as it used to be.

Beauprez stays where he is but gets the down arrow because of DU President Marc Holtzman's big news that he has raised $500k in the first quarter of 2005, as well as news that he has roped John Elway into stumping for him. Elway's inclusion isn't a big deal, but the fact that Holtzman is already planning statewide tours with big names means that he's clearly moved beyond the "I'm looking but undecided" stage. He's now a serious player in this race and a real threat to Beauprez.

Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff is on the rise because he's making little effort to pretend he's not interested in the race. Several Democrats have asked Romanoff if he is going to run for governor, and his answer is to dance around the question or make a joke. The way the rest of the Democratic field is playing out, he could very well be the Democrats' guy in 2006.

Former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter moves up slightly, by default, because the rest of the Democratic field essentially is moving down towards him. He's still not making any moves that could make him governor in 2006, but after Hickenlooper and Rutt Bridges, there's really nobody left.

Former Congressman Scott McInnis drops because the Tom DeLay scandal keeps growing -- and it's reaching into Colorado. DeLay's problems affect McInnis because as the spotlight shines brighter on the House Majority Leader it becomes harder for McInnis to sweep his own campaign finance questions under the rug. McInnis is also staying pretty quiet for a guy who is supposed to be running for governor.

For the rest of the Line changes, click below.

Moving on to the CD-7 Line, former State Representative Peggy Lamm has officially entered the race, moving her up the line, as has former candidate Rick O'Donnell. Lamm finally did move into the district and has hired some staff, and O'Donnell is moving quickly while he keeps his fingers crossed that State Treasurer Mike Coffman stays out of the race.

Meanwhile, Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall sounds likely to run, and while he has virtually no chance to win the general election he could still take the Republican primary if the chips fell his way. Paschall has a loyal following in some conservative circles that could propel him into the general election, but he's far too extreme to win in November in such an evenly divided district. It's hard to move him up too far because we can't believe the Republicans would let it get to that.

The rest of the Democratic side of the line is falling, with the exception of Jim Polsfut. Polsfut needs to raise some serious money to stay in the discussion now that Lamm and former State Senator Ed Perlmutter are running hard. Finally, Joanna Conti's chances took a huge hit with Lamm's announcement, and if Polsut can raise some money Conti will be left picking up the scraps. If Polsfut can stay in the race, we can't see how Conti is still there this time next year.

Moving on to the Legislature Line, Republicans have less than month left before the 2005 session ends on May 11th, and they haven't done much to beat their chests about. They need to make some sort of mark soon or they're going to be under tremendous pressure in 2006 to show that they are worthy of re-taking the legislature. On the other side, Democrats are falling slightly amid increasing talk that not everything is happy-go-lucky for the donkeys. More on this a bit later...

Comments

[Red Hawk]

Here here; though my opinion is completely inconsequential – well done, Colorado Pols. I concur completely.

[Donald E. L. Johnson]

What do you think Beauprez's support of DeLay and the Rs' assault on the judiciary will do to his candidacy? Help? Hurt? Neutral?

How about his participation in the Rs' grandstanding on Schiavo? Help? Hurt? Neutral?

[Alva Adams]

If the DeLay thing drags on like the Clinton impeachment stuff, then it's going to hurt Beauprez. If enough Coloradans begin to get familiar with the DeLay scandal, then you could run some pretty strong ads with Beauprez and DeLay posing in the same picture.

The Schiavo case may not matter as much. In 14 months it will probably be long forgotten.

[RedHawk]

Concerning Terri – those that care (the “Culture of Life” supporters) will remember, as they always do.

I would suggest that “off years” are the only time it really benefits a Candidate/Legislator to appeal to a Base (either hard Right or Left) without totally writing off a potential re-election.

Because The Base will remember – the Middle will forget.

[Rock 5]

Exactly! Alva and Red are right on!

The Delay scandal keeps growing it will open the door for an "outsider" like Hotzman (or even Weins) to waltz in...

As far as Sciavo goes... Red is exactly right. Our moderate buddy Don Johnson will be asking, "Terri who?" this time next year. But the hard core "Right to Life" crowd will be carrying newspaper clippings and web page prints in their purses as they line up to vote in November '06.

[wonderwoman]

Wiens has a better chance of winning the lottery than winning the Governor's Office. How many times has he gone bankrupt?

[recycle]

At the rate the Democratic candidates for Governor are disappearing or late, we ought to bring back Buie Seawell or Howard Gelt. At least they provided some leadership for the party, when it was relevant of course.

[PWL]

Odss are that Perlmutter will crap out by October. Perlmutter won't last.