Bob Beauprez and CD-7

The Washington D.C. publication Roll Call (subscription required) has a story from today on the congressional race shaping up in Colorado's CD-7:

With Colorado 7th district Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) all but certain to run for governor in 2006, the suburban Denver Congressional seat that he won in 2002 by just 121 votes is once again shaping up to be one of the toughest battlegrounds in the country.

The focus on the article is on whether a heated Democratic primary between Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm will end up costing the Democrats in the general election. Roll Call also quotes both Perlmutter and Republican frontrunner Rick O'Donnell as having raised $100,000 already.

Meanwhile, while we've always operated under the assumption that Congressman Bob Beauprez is in the race for governor to stay (as Roll Call also states), we've been hearing increased rumors that the pressure is growing from both GOP congressional leaders and the White House on the two-term congressman to stay where he is and run for re-election instead.

In fact, Beauprez has been telling friends and supporters just that, making no secret of the fact that the GOP leadership and even the White House is leaning heavily on him to stay. O'Donnell is considered by some in the NRCC to be a good candidate, but a beatable candidate, and the GOP is growing increasingly concerned that CD-7 will go Democratic should Beauprez leave (or at least take up more resources to hold onto the seat than they would like to expend).

Polling data reportedly shows that Beauprez would beat Democratic frontrunner Perlmutter in a general election despite increasing Democratic registration numbers. Either way, we hear that the NRCC has already amassed a hefty opposition research file on Perlmutter -- research that points to attacks that will link him to special interest groups.

We still think Beauprez is in the governor's race to stay -- as it is right now -- but if Karl Rove really turns up the heat, will Beauprez get out of the kitchen? And if he leaves for the governor's race once and for all, it's looking like a near certainty that CD-7 will be one bloody battle to the finish.

Comments

[candyraver]

anyone who thinks that BB makes decisions based on outside pressures rather than his gut and his heart don't know the man. He will do what he believes is right and go where he believes he can do the most good. Karl Rove doesn't stand a chance. :-)

[bebe]

Nice try to create a controversy where none exists and/or start spinning that R's are the only ones busy filling their oppo files to attack the other side. First, BB is in too far now to not keep going. And either you or your informer must be a D -- the national committee for R's is the NRCC (not RCCC).

[cotopaxi jo]

How is it that you don't also recognize the quote about how Peggy Lamm continues to draw significant support from Emily's list. Is it because it directly contradicts one of your recent posts?

[jo knows]

The speed with which ed skitters, off out of the CD-7 race should Bob Beauprez stay in would be astounding if it were not for the fact that we've all seen it so many times before. Ed chickened out of the race against Beauprez in 2002 after ed helped actually draw the district for himself; he chickened out of running against Beauprez in 2004 because he was such a "scary" incumbent; and, when everyone thought Beauprez was the presumptive incumbent for 2006, ed was so afraid of him he was planning on running for governor; but then when Beauprez jumped into the governor's race he again chickened out of a race against Beauprez and back-tracked into the seat that he created for himself and ignored for two terms. I'd so love to see him wading in his own pool of sweat trying to find a way to save face if he needs to chicken out once again.

[Dinesh]

Does anyone have a link to Mr. O'Donnell's biography?

[Ron Mexico]

Fairly uninformed post. Aside from the multiple references to the supposed "RCCC," ColoradoPols also shows a rare mental lapse. Do you really think Karl Rove would rather keep a House seat vs. a guv seat in an increasingly competitive and electorally important state like Colorado? If the powers that be at 1600 Penn. Ave. do weigh in - and there's no proof that they have or will - they'd be much more inclined to keep an R under the gold dome in Denver than they would in the 7th CD. And they know that BB is the one to do it.

[silly]

colorado pols, you show you ignorance again. There is no RCCC. It's NRCC. That's really amaturish for a bunch of folks who try to shape Colorado Politics.

Boy, you guys are way over your head.

[Jake]

Geez, this stuff makes me nuts. First of all, it seems very obvious to met that you have no idea what is truly happening on the R side of the isle (RCCC, what is that?!?! WE DON'T HAVE A R TRIPLE C!). Do you really think BB hasn't already had his conversations with leadership, both in the House and White House??? Do you really think O'Donnell hasn't already been vetted by the NRCC???

I would also agree with Ron, even in the unlikely event that the Ds take over the 7th, having one more ineffective democrat congress person is much more perferable to having the Colorado Gov's mansion go D.

[Alva Adams]

Man, you guys are really mad about that RCCC thing. Just a simple mistake that we completely missed when we looked back over it. And as to the news itself -- don't shoot the messenger. We're confident in our sources on this one.

In regards to Peggy Lamm, the quote from EMILYs List doesn't mean anything. That's what they always say. The point that we referenced earlier this week was not that EMILYs List will not support Lamm -- they still might -- but that she had been expecting to be on the first support list and will not be. She has been told that she needs to show EMILYs List more substance than she has shown thus far. We're confident in that one too.

[Alfalfa]

As Sgt. Hulka famously said, "Lighten up, Francis." Give Colorado Pols a break - they got the name of the Republican campaign committee - whoopee-de-doo, let's all pile on and show how smart we are!

On the point of the post, I disagree with Ron Mexico, though I gotta say, great name! Right now, the field of Dems in the Governor race (or considering it) is weak as sh*t. The Republicans may not even need their front bench to beat this crowd - though I don't know if I'd categorize Beauprez as having all that much juice statewide anyway. But he does have strength in 7 and would most likely win that race against whoever the Dems put up.

The Republicans have a chance to hold 7 with Beauprez running for re-election and hold the Governor's mansion with another Republican running (a well-funded Holtzman?), given the Democrats don't seem able to field a good candidate. Why concede either race thinking that Beauprez is your only strong candidate?

And, before anyone makes assumptions, this is coming from a bleeding heart liberal Democrat who would love nothing more than to see us crush the Republicans in both race. But, if Republicans are smart about where their candidates run, I don't see that happening.

[Jake]

Well, you would have to say you are confident, since you already posted it. Unfortunately, you are just plain wrong on this one.

There is a 30 seat margin for the Rs in the US House, there is no margin in the Gov's mansion. In light of the fact that the Ds control the House and the Senate, it is the #1 priority of the Rs to continue to hold the Gov's mansion.

My guess, your sources are a few of those Jeffco Rs that want Beauprez to stay no matter what, for a variety of reasons (I am not disparaging them, but I know that they exist). Fortunately, BB is seems to be looking at the bigger picture for Colorado.

[Ron Mexico]

Right on, Jake Break. BB is an executive afterall, not a sausage making legislator (though he's proven effecive at that too). Besides, he can't run for president as a member of the House.

[Ter Ducken]

Yeah, but as CP has pointed out before, he definitely can't run for president if he loses the governor's race and isn't a member of congress. Look at John Edwards. He's going to have a hell of a time trying to run for president without being in the Senate.

[vladimir]

Hey guys -- being urged to stay in Congress is just a shuck and jive act by Beauprez to save face if he backs out of the race for Gov -- Of course he got the OK from Hastert and DeLay before he announced -- than along comes Marc "Stand Up and Say That" Holtzman who is raising money and creating excitement -- Beauprez is also overrated. So, he beat Fat Mike Feeley and Cover Up Columbine Dave Thomas -- That does not mean he can beat Marc Holtzman -- A month ago Bobby B was unequivocal that he was running -- now he is hedging his bets -- usually a precursor for an exit for the good of the party

[Jack]

Hey thanks for the scoop, Vladimir. At what point did Beauprez hedge his bets? This is the first time I've heard that - anywhere... from anybody...

If you have a link to an article where he hedged his bets, that would be an interesting read. Thanks.

[brio]

To all annoying whiners who endlessly complain about how worthless and uniformed the Colorado Pols are: if you find it so useless, why not stop wasting your time reading the blog, and our time with your bratty little posts?

[vladimir]

Hey BlackJack --
Two months ago your boy Bobby B -- was running -- no question about it -- now he is telling Rep audiences that he is still making up his mind. Two months ago he was telling folks that he had the blessing and support of the White House & Congressional leadership. Now he is saying they want him to run for reelection. -- Tell me why
Jacky? Is it because he is afraid of Marc Elevator Shoes Holtzman -- Beating Mike I Love a Buffet Feely by a 120 votes does not show me that he is unbeatable --

[vladimir]

I agree with Brio that this blog is worthless -- heck, if I stopped reading it I'd have to get a life -- Hey to the supporters of Peroxide Peggy Lamm -- is she on the Emily's List List or are they just chatting you up? How much dough will she be reporting? How much cash will she have on hand? I hear that Eddie P has planted many a doubt while her high paid campaign folks were having a nice lunch on Peroxide Peggy's dime

[Phoenix Rising]

If the NRCC leaders think DeLay and the radical agenda is going to drag them down in '06 and precipitate a 1994-style House cleaning, they might think Beauprez is necessary to maintain their majority.

There's some recent polling data to suggest that 1994 feeling is returning - only 33% of the public approve of Congress, and that's the lowest since 1994...

[Jake]

Sure, I am looking forward to a Nancy Pelosi contract with America.

[Insider]

Vladimir is a dumbass. "For the good of the party." What kind of a joker are you? You hit your head this morning you freaky Slav wannabe? Wake up. Bob Beauprez is the party. If you'd spend some time talking to delegates across the state instead of jetsetting to NYC to raise money you'd realize that. All of you who think he's not running or won't beat the snot out of Holtzman -- regardless of how much money the Super Nerd raises -- will realize that soon enough.

[gopone]

Watch for Salazar to come in and run. He is the Dems only hope. Everyone else in the D column is beatable by either Holtzman or BB.

I think the hedging by BB is stalling waiting to flesh Salazar into or out of the race... but since Salazar is a blatent, promise breaker and flip-flopper, I wouldn't trust him.

He might say he is staying out to fake BB out and then hop in later -- leaving BB looking like a complete naive idiot and really ticking off his congressional district.

[Phoenix Rising]

Part of politics is the little games of chicken on who's running and who's not. Right now the Republicans are being played, IMHO; no-one of top stature is in on the D side, but the R's need to hold the line in '06 and so they're frantically jockeying for maximum positioning.

[peterco]

I think it is more the money/resources that concern the NRCC. The Democratic swing in the state leg that has them concerned, since defending the legislature this round should be easier since most of the incumbents will stay for now. So the Dems could concentrate more on swing districts like the 7th and the Governor's race.

There are only 6 Senate seats realistically having a chance to flip, and most of the house open seats from 2004 are now Democratic incumbents, in the same area as the 7th CD.

[cotopaxi jo]

Vladimir, we'll see what all CD-7 candidates have when they lay their cards on the table at the end of June. Until then no one is going to put out detailed information. So little ed, the diminutive dud, is claiming to have over 100K--how much exactly? How much is his own money (because for the past 3 years while Peggy has been working hard in public policy ed has been raking in the dough in private practice)?

As for doubts about Peggy--those who live in glass dollhouses shouldn't throw stones. Ed has so many skeletons in his closets he is making a desperate attempt to strongarm Peggy out of the primary before any of it comes out. His voting record alone is far from your average democrat--he voted for vouchers, against gay rights, and against the environment. And that's just the beginning.

As for the lame peroxide commnet, at least Peggy has hair.