Bob Beauprez and CD-7

The Washington D.C. publication Roll Call (subscription required) has a story from today on the congressional race shaping up in Colorado's CD-7:

With Colorado 7th district Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) all but certain to run for governor in 2006, the suburban Denver Congressional seat that he won in 2002 by just 121 votes is once again shaping up to be one of the toughest battlegrounds in the country.

The focus on the article is on whether a heated Democratic primary between Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm will end up costing the Democrats in the general election. Roll Call also quotes both Perlmutter and Republican frontrunner Rick O'Donnell as having raised $100,000 already.

Meanwhile, while we've always operated under the assumption that Congressman Bob Beauprez is in the race for governor to stay (as Roll Call also states), we've been hearing increased rumors that the pressure is growing from both GOP congressional leaders and the White House on the two-term congressman to stay where he is and run for re-election instead.

In fact, Beauprez has been telling friends and supporters just that, making no secret of the fact that the GOP leadership and even the White House is leaning heavily on him to stay. O'Donnell is considered by some in the NRCC to be a good candidate, but a beatable candidate, and the GOP is growing increasingly concerned that CD-7 will go Democratic should Beauprez leave (or at least take up more resources to hold onto the seat than they would like to expend).

Polling data reportedly shows that Beauprez would beat Democratic frontrunner Perlmutter in a general election despite increasing Democratic registration numbers. Either way, we hear that the NRCC has already amassed a hefty opposition research file on Perlmutter -- research that points to attacks that will link him to special interest groups.

We still think Beauprez is in the governor's race to stay -- as it is right now -- but if Karl Rove really turns up the heat, will Beauprez get out of the kitchen? And if he leaves for the governor's race once and for all, it's looking like a near certainty that CD-7 will be one bloody battle to the finish.

Comments

[candyraver]

I'd still like to see those claiming BB is 'hedging his bets' and 'telling Rep audiences he's still making up his mind' to come up with some proof of that.

[Buck]

The Aurora Sentinel online is running a poll about Beauprez -- it's at the bottom of the page, scroll down past the stories.

http://www.aurorasentinel.com/main.asp?SectionID=8

[The Big Rooster]

BB is running for Gov, absolutely, positively, no question. he can match Holtzman's fundraising, no problem. Glad to see the Holtzman spinmeisters posting on this blog though, but it's very wishful thinking that BB drops out.

You heard it here first folks, BB will be our next Governor unless he's caught with a dead woman or live boy in his bed, and that ain't gonna happen.

Dems only hope is Hickenlooper, but "Geek chic" doesn't play well on the western slope...I guess we can take this website down now. The people just elected Salazar to serve in the US Senate do you actually think they'd elect him to another job after finishing 1/3 of his current one?

Holtzman has the money, great guy, but he only makes the ballot by petitioning. No way he gets out of the State Convention. Petitioning means you lose the support of most party activists, and costs a boatload of investment banking $$, which means he loses anyway.

Plus, let's look at the visual at a debate, unless Marc is standing on a soapbox behind his podium, people will realize that BB is 2x as tall, so everyone will know who the Alpha Male on that stage will be.

Maybe Marc should move into CD-7, hmmm....I'd love to see a debate between Holtzman (The Short Guy), O' Donnell (The College Student looking guy), McCasky (The Feather-haired tan guy), and Paschall (The Guy who wins the debate, but no one votes for him guy). This is in good (or Bad) humor, all of the above listed are quality guys.

[gopone]

Rooster,

You are foolish not to consider Salazar. True, he was just elected but he has absolutely nothing to lose.

If he wins, he gets to appoint his senate successor and he would be the very best candidate for the Dems... better than Hick. The Dems are not fools, they know how important this Govs race is.

If Salazar loses, he goes back to the senate for 4 years and 4 years is a long time to patch things up with the citizens of Colorado to run for the senate again or make another stab at Gov.

My bet is that Salazar will run but he is playing heads games with BB and the R's.

We would be foolish to count him out.

[Ter Ducken]

Here's the thing about Hick and the Western Slope. It doesn't matter. Statewide races aren't won or lost on the Western Slope. 80% of the votes are along the front range, where Hick is most popular. This is no disrespect to the Western Slope, but they just don't have the population to make any perceived lack of support there matter. Any Democrat is still going to pull 30% just being on the ballot.

If Hick runs, he beats Beauprez easy.

[dudders]

Gopone, you're right that we would be foolish to count out Salazar. You never turn your back on someone of that caliber.

That said, it's ludicrous to think he'll run. The only people who actually think that are Joe Stengel and, apparently, his staff.

[gopone]

Dudders,

Why do you think that is ludicrous?

You need to think like a Democrat to win. You aren't.

What the heck does Stengel have to do with the Gov's race?

[dudders]

Stengel's the only person on record as believing that Salazar will run (he was quoted in a couple articles saying it, maybe 2 weeks ago now). And his staff are the only people I know who actually repeat it.

It's ludicrous because Salazar would lose if he ran. The message for the GOP candidate is just too easy - Salazar's opportunistic, career politician, not willing to do the job he was elected to, etc. There just won't be any way for Salazar to dodge it, and he won't win.

And I understand Stengel's little theory that losing doesn't matter because Salazar would get to keep his day job. But nobody runs for office when they think they'll lose (except Joe), and especially nobody of Salazar's caliber. Running for governor is a long, hard job, especially when you're missing votes in DC. Salazar wouldn't run unless he thought it was 80% certain he'd win. Even Peter Blake laughs at the idea, and in print to boot.

Salazar's been making enough verbal gaffes that he just can't risk anything right now. He'd have a hard time getting re-elected to senate in 2010, after we drive his negatives so goddamn high in the governor's race.

[gopone]

Dudders,

Better put the Denver Post, Joan Fitzgerald and Diane Carmen in the Stengel camp then. See her article today.

Salazar will run. Like Obi Wan, he is their only hope.

[dudders]

Read the article again - Joan didn't say it, Diane did. Which means the only two savants you're keeping company with are Joe Stengel and Diane Carman.

Damn, that's shrewd stuff.

[gopone]

Dud,

It has nothing to do with company. It has to do with looking at the political landscape, planning ahead for the toughest fight and hoping for the best.

If Salazar doesn't run, Praise the Lord! But, I wouldn't plan on that now. That would be total foolishness.

Salazar has won a statewide race -- mainly by keeping all the D's and taking the Rep women's vote in the metro area. Sure, the Pres won but Arapahoe and Jeffco R-women voted for the prez and for Salazar. Whoever the R nominee for Gov is, must reverse that trend.

[Ter Ducken]

It's always interesting to me to see what people take out of a certain story. I read the Carman article and didn't take anything out if it in regards to Salazar. Nothing whatsoever. She just said that speculation centers on whether Salazar or Hickenlooper will run, and it was just one sentence.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, but I don't see how you could take that one sentence to mean anything at all. I took it as just a casual reference to other potential candidates.

Salazar would be a weaker candidate than Hickenlooper anyway. I agree that Salazar would have a tough time winning, but Hickenlooper would be the favorite. If nothing else he and Beauprez would be dead even. I'd much rather have Hickenlooper than Salazar.

[tim]

Ter, didn't you work for Salazar?

[Vladimir]

Slav Wannabe -- thought being born in Kiev qualified me as the real thing --
Bobby B cleared the run for Gov with the White House, Speaker Hastert and Tom DeLay -- now he is allowing rumors to be floated about being urged to stay in Congress needs to be viewed in the context that OK had already been given --
But, good points are made by one and all about Lamm and Perlmutter -- to think that this seat was once held by Tim Wirth and one of those two bozos is likely to be the Dem nominee -- and on the Rep side Bob Beauprez the most powerful and influential member of the Cognressional delegation from Colorado will be replaced by Little Ricky O -- a damned shame

[Ter Ducken]

Tim, sorry you are confusing me with some other person who doesn't use their real name here. I did not work for Salazar.

[gopone]

Everyone notice the replies to this thread. Not once did a Salazar person step forward to deny he was thinking about running for Gov.

Everytime Hick is mentioned anywhere on this site, some Hick person comes forward and denies it.

Never a Salazar person. Nice fluff piece about the Salazar's this weekend too in the paper.