Line Changes

We've made changes across the Governor and CD-7 Lines. Here's the lowdown...

The biggest change is that Marc Holtzman has now pulled even with Congressman Bob Beauprez. Holtzman held a big name fundraiser in New York last week and appears to be well on his way towards raising another $500k this quarter, which would give him an impressive $1 million in the bank in July. Holtzman was also approached by some big Republican donors in Colorado about taking the soon-to-be vacant State Treasurer job, which would make him the frontrunner in a re-election campaign, but Holtzman flatly refused. You know you are a serious candidate when party heads are offering you the kitchen sink to get out of the race, and the fact that Holtzman is getting that much attention doesn't bode well for Beauprez.

Beauprez is still a slight favorite on our line, and he'll remain the favorite if his first fundraising report shows good numbers. But if he can't at least stay competitive with Holtzman money-wise, then this race will be an absolute dogfight in the Republican primary.

Elsewhere, we're still waiting for Rutt Bridges to announce whether or not he plans to run -- an announcement that should have been made months ago if he is truly serious about the race. By letting Bill Ritter get the jump on announcing, the longer Rutt waits, the more ground he'll have to make up in the battle of perception. Rutt can't let Ritter have the microphone to himself for too long without looking like candidate number two.

Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff continues to fall, as fellow Democrats grumble about his disorganized leadership style in the legislature. If the TABOR changes don't pass in November, Romanoff can stop thinking about higher office in 2006. Former Congressman Scott McInnis continues to drop as our confidence that he might actually run for governor fades. He hasn't done anything to act like a candidate, and we have no reason to think that he'll be at the starting line this time next year.

Moving on to the CD-7 Line, Democrat Ed Perlmutter and Republican Rick O'Donnell strengthened their respective hold on the top spots, with Perlmutter maintaining a slight advantage because of more registered Democrats in the district.

Perlmutter benefits by challenger Peggy Lamm's incompetance at handling the first attack of the campaign. If Lamm's bumbling is any indication of how she'll perform throughout the rest of the campaign, Perlmutter will win the nomination going away.

O'Donnell solidifies his role as the top GOP candidate with word that State Treasurer Mike Coffman will file his paperwork to run for Secretary of State in 2006 before he heads out for his tour of duty in Iraq next week. There are rumors of more Republican challengers, but right now only Jeffco Treasurer Mark Paschall remains.

Comments

[Adams Wonk]

Matt Mayer was in town last week making the rounds with CACI, the Post and Rocky. Think he is coming back to manage O’Donnell’s campaign?

[HICK IS OUT]

How is Hick still at the top of the heap with him making no positive move toward running and the only press he has received lately is bad.

[Supportive Dem]

What grumblings have you heard about Andrew's leadership? From everything I know, he's did a great job for us in the House this year. It seems like y'all have a problem with Andrew and you're letting that change the coverage that you give him.

[Colorado Luis]

Only negative publicity lately? You must have missed this story:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_3794943,00.html

[ohwilleke]

I don't see anything but a blank space where the lines should be. Also, what happened Friday. AT&T was reporting a phishing scheme from your site.

[Barry]

Adams Wonk -
That's what I hear--the Bush folks want to hold this seat and want Mayer to help win it and will let him take a leave from
his Homeland Security post. They're saying it's one of the top five seats in the country.

[Baris]

Starting from scratch and with no money, Mayer and O'Donnell top-lined at the assembly, and out organized and nearly beat
Beauprez in the primary.

If they're teamed up again...

[Alva Adams]

The line is blank on our computer this morning, too, and we're not sure why. You could see it last night. We'll check into it.

As for the ATT thing, apparently there was a problem with our domain name host in the web forwarding feature -- it happened to all of their clients, which was probably a lot worse for some people than it was for us. Anybody who had a website with web forwarding got that message on Friday for a few hours if you typed in the forwarding address. If you had just typed in the full coloradopoliticalnews.blogs.com address, which most people don't do, the issue didn't come up.

We don't collect any sort of information, not in the least because nobody submits any personal information anywhere. We barely know enough to keep this site running (notice that we have no idea why the Line image went blank), and we'd have more luck holding a conversation in Chinese than trying to phish for information. We'll see if Network Solutions put out an explanation.

[Alva Adams]

Wait, there's the Line. It just popped back up. Anybody else having trouble?

Two answers to other questions:

1. Hick will stay at the top until he says "I will not run for governor in 2006." Until then, he's the one guy that EVERYBODY is afraid of on both sides. That's enough reason to leave him where he is.

2. We'll do more on Andrew a bit later, but there have been serious grumblings about how he handled the legislative session. It's not enough to pose a serious challenge to him, but it's enough that he's not the golden boy anymore.

[Ralph]

The Colorado Springs Gazette has a must read story about how November's referendum C will shape the Republican race for Governor. It's so rare to get decent political coverage in Colorado. Hats off to Kyle Henley:
http://www.gazette.com/display.php?id=1307821&secid=1

[Ralph]

Also, Rutt Bridges should really look at Secretary of State or State Treasurer, rather than governor. It isn't as high profile (and he needs some polishing) and those are races where money makes a difference.

[vladimir]

Top Line
Getting the Top Line and four bucks will get you a fancy coffee at Starbucks -- Mike Miles got top line, Beth McCann got top line
Mike Feeley got top line when he ran for Gov -- who the hell cares -- Rick O'Donnell in 2002 took his top line and got his ass kicked -- If the best the Reps can do is the same loser who ran O'Donnell's last campaign than Eddie P goes to the Congress. Rick O'Donnell has done nothing the past four years except allow his right wing ideologue pure as snow sorry ass to get tainted with the CU scandal -- People are beginning to realize that Peggy Lamm is a Rutt Bridges intellectual -- which means she ain't too smart -- Ed will have an uncontested primary after Rick Ridder bleeds Lamm dry and O'Donnell and the same loser he had run his last campaign will likely have a tough primary -- spare me -- O'Donnell got top line and he will probably get it again whoopdedoo --

[Demento]

Just a question on Holtzman, he looks good but was he Owen's tech man when the Human Services computer system was put in place and everything went wrong? Will this come back to bite him if he is held accountable?

[factoid]

No he was long gone, and his area OIT didn't really have much to do with the debacle.

[Beauprez 2006]

Congressman Beauprez will be close to $1 million dollars raised on the next report which should be a very clear signal that Beauprez is the the Republican parties best candidate to hold onto the Governorship.

[Baris]

Easy Vladimir!

You're good with the name calling, but not as good with knowing the `02 race you speak of. O'Donnell top-lined in `02 and nearly beat Beauprez in the primary despite being outspent 3 to 1.

The point is, to top-line, you've gotta be good at the grassroots, and O'Donnell's already proven it--and Mayer was instrumental in the campaign's success. Now, we just have to wait and see if O'Donnell can do the other part: raise money! Whispers say he's raised more money in the last 30 days than he did the entire primary of `02. If it's true, that's something worth mentioning.

[Ter Ducken]

I think Vladimir is generally correct about the top line stuff. Colorado has a history of politicians who did well at the assembly and ultimately lost the nomination. Winning at the assembly doesn't prove grassroots anything. It just shows that you got more of the hardcore political types to support you. Grassroots is about reaching out to the less-involved voter. Mike Miles supporters crow about their "grassroots" movement at the state assembly, but they didn't have a true grassroots movement because he couldn't even get 30% in the primary.

Is it good to win the assembly? Sure, I guess so. But it doesn't mean squat when the actual election comes around. There's no cause and effect relationship between assembly results and election results.

[Baris]

And O'Donnell is an example of that--top-lined and lost. The point is, O'Donnell is an effective campaigner; he barely lost to a very-electable candidate and did it without money. When money is thrown into the equation it makes that campaigner that much more of a threat to contenders. Sheesh.

[John Sapien]

Lest you forget, vladimir. While top-line assembly winners can lose--as Rick O'Donnell certainly did--don't think for a moment that that loss is akin to a Mike Miles blow-out (73% to 27%). O'Donnell spent roughly $150,000 to Beauprez's roughly $600,000--a 4-1 ratio and only beat O'Donnell by 1900 votes (38% to 31%), which means Beauprez spent $58 per vote to O'Donnell's $18 per vote--yikes! That 1900 vote difference had everything to do with Beauprez being on television and radio for the last two weeks while O'Donnell stood silent due to no cash. If O'Donnell had the cash then--and the word is he does now--Congressman O'Donnell would be gearing up for re-elect now and Beauprez would be counting his cash from Heritage Bank.

As for the Right-Wingers, remember that it was former Senator Bill Armstrong who nominated BEAUPREZ at the 7th CD Assembly and King of the Right Bob Schaeffer who had endorsed Beauprez, so Rick top-lined Beauprez by attracting BOTH right wingers and moderates--a very dangerous thought for you Democrats.

Facts hurt.

[vladimir]

Ricky boy also managed to scare the hell out of the Rep establishment and that is why they got Beauprez to run --
How has Ricky enhanced his resume?
Hmmm -- managed to get his pseudo intellectual dumb ass tainted by the CU Scandal --
Than, Short Ed Perlmutter is supposed to quake in his boots cuz Ricky is bringing in the same loser that managed his losing campaign the last time -- hey we ain't playing horseshoes -- I mean it sounds like Ricky and Jennifer Mellow are playing Patty Cake Patty Cake Baker's Man together -- you guys lost and except at horseshoes close don't cut it --

[George D.]

Vladimir, interesting that you qualify yourself to judge intellect when you yourself are quick to offer "dumb ass" and "loser" as good descriptors. It's equally fascinating to see how many other words (some not even slanderous) you pulled out of the dictionary--at random in many cases--and tacked them on either side. At first glance, it looks like you have something to say...but in the end, its just name calling sandwiched between jibberish, none of which is all that interesting.

[vladimir]

Hey, never claimed to be an intellectual --
But, if I had been advising Little Ricky he'd have not gotten his dumb pontificating, holier than thou ass tainted by the CU scandal -- Must say as an American it is a sad day to see that the best the Reps can do is a two-bit hypocrite in Ricky O'Donnell and the Dems can only counter with a guy whose only concern while in the State Senate was lining his own pocketbook --
A disgrace and a pox on both parties

[Higheredguru]

Why in the world do you think O'Donnell is tainted by the CU scandal???? That is so silly it is almost not worth asking, but I am curious.

[vladimir]

Lemme see now --
Ricky got his first real adult job as Higher Ed Adviser to Owens -- on his watch the CU scandals escalated out of control -- The Gov did call for some changes after the cows got out of the barn -- Of course you got to love little hypocrites like Ricky -- quick to knock folks on public assistance but Ricky could never hold down a real job -- instead gets a big salary for being a higher ed adviser when he had nary a clue and certainly was not qualified --

[Phil McCready]

RE: Outsourced Colo. jobs rile unemployed; Denver Post 5-20-05; http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_2746256

This is a classic example of a Government 'solution' creating negative feedback for the state's workforce system.

From April 2001 to April 2005 Colorado lost over 12,000 jobs [27% of its total workforce] in Computer Systems Design and Related Services. Nearly three quarters of these workers have not been re-hired within the state. While Colorado's computing industry has been slow to recover since 2003, states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas have each created between 6,000 to 11,000 new jobs. India's IT job creation is probably even more impressive.

The State's purchase of a multi-million dollar IT system that uses Indian system developers contributes directly to the strength of foreign competitors. This only helps to speed up the rate at which state and national industry is transferred overseas.

The system purchased will probably be used to increase the efficiency at which [some] disabled residents are retrained for employment in the IT industry. What value will the system provide when it actually reinforces the decline of Colorado’s IT job opportunities? These decisions need to be evaluated in terms of the overall state workforce system and not just in terms of immediate savings and departmental budgets.

Is it time to launch an "Always Buy Colorado Technology" campaign?

Phil McCready
Innovation Economics LLC
[email protected]