Friday Open Thread

That was one quick week.

Comments

[Jake]

The Colorado Springs Gazette had a very interesting take on the Owens/Schaffer endorsement of Beauprez.

In particular, I find it interesting that the Gazette took the tact of pointing out Holtzman's run to the right and how BB's recent endorsements may effect that attempt.

“If Marc Holtzman had any hopes of capturing the biggest slice of the right-leaning Republicans, he would have needed Schaffer and Musgrave,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University in Fort Collins and an expert on Colorado politics. “I think his chances are diminished. I don’t know if they are gone, but they are diminished.”

A pretty good story for BB, considering that it ran in an area of the state with the most active conservatives, an area MH has been working to cultivate.

Read it for your self at http://www.gazette.com/display.php?id=1308831&secid=1.

[not straayer again]

Fortunately for Holtzman, that probably means he's running strong. John Straayer has got to be the single least astute observer of colorado politics to ever be quoted in the paper. I swear, every single time he's been quoted in the last three years, he's been wrong. It's not that he's biased, it's that he truly doesn't understand politics.

[Jake]

Not - That may well be, more interesting to me was the gist of the story and the fact that it ran in the Springs.

[MarcIsSinking]

Even Straayer can get it right once in a while.

Holtzman is sinking fast. With the help of his spokeswoman, he has managed to alienate GOP elected officials as well as the grassroots.

Holtzman's continued vile attacks are just another signal that he's all talk and no substance.

A few more weeks and he will have dug a hole so deep that he won't be able to crawl out.

Prediction -- Holtzman won't have the substance or the support to make it through the race.

[quoteable]

Interesting to note some waffling on BB's part on Ref. C. (see the bottom of today's rocky story). But boy, the man knows how to give a good sound byte (chainsaws and pharmaceuticals).
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3912188,00.html

[wolfpack6]

Interesting side story here:
Laura Teal has tried to pass herself off as Bob Schaffer's right hand person for quite a while now, but he won't even endorse her candidate. Is this the beginning of a fallout between Schaffer - Teal, or is it just that Schaffer doesn't believe in her candidate? Based on Laura's past history, it wouldn't surprise me to see her attack her former boss on that one.

[salazarwatcher]

OK. It's time for you guys to add Ken Salazar to the Governor Line. If you can keep Hick in there, you gotta consider Salazar.

1. It's the job he's always wanted.
2. The Ds know they may not keep the leg, and even if they do they would love to be able to get some bills passed AND signed.
3. Rutt???? Rutt Rutt Rutt Rutt.
4. As Governor, Ken would appoint someone to the Senate seat he left.
5. Rutt would step out, again, for him, hoping that he might get that appointment.
6. Fitz-Gerald's best friends won't return her calls.
7. Carpenter is the best operative in Colorado and would love to win back the Gov.'s office for the Ds.

That adds up to at least 7-1.

[Alfalfa]

No.

Salazar knew the governor's race would be for an open seat in 2006 and he'd have a clear path to the D nod. If governor was a job he's always wanted, then why run for Senate, especially if you think you might run for Gov two years later?

I think he wanted to be Senator, and will be in that job for a while (doing a good job, I might add). That being said, we may see him run for Governor one day. He's a young guy - with the Governor term limited, there is plenty of chances for Salazar to serve one full term in the Senate, get re-elected, then see how the timing works for a governor's race during a or after the second term.

[Joey]

I agree with Salazaar Watcher. Also, I think you should move Scott McInnis up a little based on BB's endorsements. Isn't it possible that Holtzmann realizes he has a big fight at the primary now and maybe steps down or runs for something else. McInnis may still be in this thing. It is very early. By the way, did Schaffer take himself out of this? I can't remember. . . Seems like he might come back too.

[Manofthehour]

wolfpack, I'm pretty sure I' gonna be voting for BB. Still haven't heard MH speak yet, nor do I know awhole lot about him. I do know Laura Teal though, and to say she would attack Bob is ridiculous. Are R's not allowed to disagree anymore? We're talkig shades of grey not black and white. She is a woman of integrity who has gotten beat up way too much on this site the past couple weeks. MH is lucky to have her on his team

[politicalprincess]

I heard Wes McKinley is forming an exploratory committee for the 4th CD and will be filing early next week... he must read the blog.

[Alva Adams]

Let me address a couple of these points.

Salazar said explicitly in the Q&A with Colorado Pols that he was not going to run for governor. We asked him about it twice, and both times he declined.

You can read that here: http://coloradopoliticalnews.blogs.com/colorado_political_news/2005/06/qa_with_senator_1.html

As for Holtzman/McInnis, we've said repeatedly that we don't think McInnis will actually run for governor, and we don't have any reason to back off of that now. Holtzman is still the favorite. He's raising a lot of money and his anti-establishment rhetoric may play well in a primary. He has also stated explicitly that he would not back out of this race, or accept Lt. Governor, and he has already turned down running for State Treasurer. Besides, when you have raised nearly $1 million in 6 months, you don't back out.

[ql]

NICE!!!

...if it is true that Wes is forming an exploratory committee. If he can get a good staff behind him and raise some dough he could be a forced to be reckoned with in that race!

[jake]

I thought Sen. Salazar's answer was pretty clear on the matter of running for Gov.

I would still question the wisdom of having MH the favorite on the R side for the Gov line. I don't care how much money he has raised, I just don't see him as the favorite. At least not right now.

[candyraver]

with his endorsements, backing of the power players in the party and track record of winning, i find it absolutely mind-meltingly absurd that Alva & Co. could say "Holtzman is still the favorite" with a straight face. That's not to say MH doesn't have a glimmer of hope (too early to say) but to call him the definitive favorite is either wishful thinking or utter delusion.

[salazarwatcher]

Alva, I went and re-read that interview, and he talks about how Washington is "Poisonous" and that he can't think of any scenario "off-hand."

Here's one he didn't think of off-hand, but is real enough: Rutt and Jared have him over for beer and explain how much he is needed to save the state from BB.

Look, it may not happen, but it's at least as likely as Hick running. The only difference is that Hick is in the line, and Salazar is not.

[shamus]

Candyraver is right. Holtzman has had an awful week of missteps/wind taken out of his sails. When other candidates do that, you take them down a notch or two. Dosen't the same apply to Holtzman?

[Jake]

Salazarwatcher - Here is my question and answer from Sen. Salazar.

11. Jake

Since I know I won't get an answer about whether you plan on running for Governor, how about this, when do you plan on making your intentions known? Does the fact that you were recently elected to the Senate factor into your decision making process?

Sen. Salazar: I have made my intentions clear: I have no plans to run for Governor at this time.

Clearly, he leaves a little wiggle room there. If it were me, however, I won't put him on the line, nor would I put Hick on the Gov line.

In fact, it seems strange to me that Hick is on the line, given his comments about the race to the media. Every other candidate on the line has at least expressed interest in running (although I am not sure about Romanoff).

[Hobbs]

I for one think the Beauprez Campaign is trying to minimize the money they are expected to report (350k on hand) with these totally useless endorsements. I'm a Bob fan - but this is quite obviously a tactic to downplay the fact they've been outraised.

[FOB]

Hobbs:
Don't bet on it. Holtzman may very well have more cash on hand but don't be surprised if Beauprez kept pace with him in the second quarter. More importantly, look where the money came from. If Holtzman raised even 30 percent of his money from Colorado I'll be shocked. I predict it will be big donors from the east coast. Look for Beauprez's to be raised locally, and have a lot of medium and small donors. All Holtzman has is his ability to call in personal, financial, non-Colorado favors. If Beauprez even comes close to him and has most of his money raised locally, Holtzman should read the tea leaves.

[also a FOB]

FOB - Seeing as 67.1% of Marc's money from Q1 was in-state money, I think you've got the wrong talking points.

Also, the pace of his fundraising in Q1 did not fall after Beauprez's March 15th announcement that he formed an exploratory committee - Holtzman's fundraising actually gained steam in those last two weeks of the quarter.

The biggest knock on Holtzman's fundraising (the part that's already public, at any rate), is that there weren't many small donors. Of 906 individual donations in Q1, 804 were $500 checks. And 368 of those were duplicates, meaning the donor gave for both the primary and the general. His Q1 list is basically maxed out.

But you're right that Beauprez isn't pooh-poohing the fundraising because he's scared. Frankly, I haven't seen him pooh-pooh it at all, except for Marshall's comments this morning.

Holtzman is not gaining traction in the press for having bags of money, and the signs of life from the Beauprez campaign these past two weeks have more than solidified Beauprez's dominating lead in the conventional wisdom.

[also a FOB]

Also, if the figure above is indeed what Beauprez reports ($350k), and reports that Holtzman has $850k are true, that would mean Holtzman outraised Beauprez by over $80k in the second quarter.

[toomanypoliticos]

I appreciate that so many people who post here apparently "work" in the business, but - I'm sorry - I think you need to get out more. Holtzman is right to distance himself from Owens, just as Hick is smart to keep his options open concerning the race next year. We're pretty frustrated with this whole "politics as usual" stuff, and even Bush - who we resoundandly reelected - is seeing his numbers start to fall. Don't you guys add that all up?

[ziik]

i love how politics is one of the few businesses where people think they are smarter strategists than the people running the show. Sports coaches and teachers are the only other professionals that deal with this problem. You never hear people saying, man that stock broker really needs to get in touch or boy that urologist could certainly fine tune his skills

[irishstout]

Anyone is SMART to distance his/herself from Owens. He will be the kiss of death.